Liga Profesional · Sun · 20:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Argentinos Juniors are heavy favourites at 1.40, implying about a 71% win probability against Aldosivi's roughly 10%.
The draw is priced at 4.28, implying around 23% and reflecting a lopsided contest in the market's eyes.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.25 sits near 42% implied confidence, so it is closer to a coin flip than a comfortable edge.
The value edge on the pick is negative at -5.14%, and no value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 19.4% | 5.17 |
| 2-0 | 15.5% | 6.44 |
| 0-0 | 12.1% | 8.29 |
| 1-1 | 9.9% | 10.13 |
| 3-0 | 8.3% | 12.03 |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | 12.63 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.60 and 0.51. These six scorelines cover 73% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AJ | X | 2 · AMD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.40 | 4.23 | 9.95 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.40 | 4.05 | 9.70 |
| Betsson | 1.40 | 4.05 | 9.70 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.38 | 4.25 | 9.50 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.37 | 4.15 | 9.80 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.35 | 4.20 | 9.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Argentinos Juniors host Aldosivi Mar del Plata in this Liga Profesional fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it prefers. At 1.40, Argentinos are strong favourites, with those odds implying a win probability of roughly 71%. Aldosivi are priced as clear outsiders at 9.75, translating to only about 10% implied chance, while the draw sits at 4.28, or around 23%. That is a wide gap between the two teams, reflecting a market that expects the home side to control proceedings. Rather than backing the short favourite outright, our model looks toward the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 2.25. That price carries a market-implied confidence of around 42%. Worth noting up front: the value edge on this selection reads negative at -5.14%, so this is a lean rather than a standout value spot in the Argentinos Juniors versus Aldosivi Mar del Plata matchup.
Verdict: The lean is Over 2.5 goals at 2.25, carrying roughly 42% implied confidence. Be aware the value edge is negative at -5.14%, so this is a modest, higher-risk angle rather than a strong recommendation. Stake responsibly and treat it accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.22, with a 43% confidence rating.
Argentinos Juniors are clear favourites at 1.40, implying about a 71% win probability. Aldosivi are outsiders at 9.75, around 10% implied.
The draw is priced at 4.28 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 23% chance of the teams sharing the points.
No value picks cleared our threshold against the market consensus. The recommended Over 2.5 goals lean at 2.25 actually shows a negative value edge of -5.14%, so it should be viewed cautiously.
Argentinos Juniors vs Aldosivi Mar del Plata takes place Sun · 20:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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