Liga Profesional · Sun · 20:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Aldosivi are the marginal favourites at 2.55 (about 39% implied), but the gap to Banfield at 3.14 (about 32%) is narrow.
The draw is priced at 2.94, roughly 34% implied, underlining a closely rated three-way market.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.61 carries around 59% implied confidence but a negative value edge of about -4.96%.
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus, so there is no standout edge on this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 14.3% | 6.99 |
| 0-1 | 14.0% | 7.16 |
| 1-0 | 13.9% | 7.22 |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | 7.40 |
| 0-2 | 6.8% | 14.68 |
| 2-0 | 6.7% | 14.90 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.97 and 0.98. These six scorelines cover 69% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banfield to win | 3.14 | +4.3% | 33% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AMD | X | 2 · BAN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.54 | 2.94 | 3.14 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.55 | 2.80 | 2.55 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.50 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.45 | 2.70 | 2.55 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.42 | 2.55 | 2.48 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Liga Profesional fixture sees Aldosivi Mar del Plata host Banfield, with the market leaning modestly towards the home side. At best odds of 2.55, Aldosivi are priced as favourites, implying roughly a 39% chance of victory. Banfield, at 3.14, sit around 32% in implied terms, while the draw at 2.94 translates to about 34%. Those figures are tightly bunched, which points to a contest the market rates as reasonably open rather than a clear mismatch. Our model does not flag a value edge on the result itself; instead it leans towards Over 1.5 goals at 1.61, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 59%. Note that this pick shows a negative value edge of roughly -4.96%, meaning the price offers no theoretical margin over the market. Treat it as a modest lean supported by the odds rather than a standout opportunity in this matchup.
Verdict: The model's lean is Over 1.5 goals at 1.61, backed by roughly 59% implied confidence but with a negative value edge, so it offers no theoretical margin over the market. Consider it a low-conviction total rather than a strong play, and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.61, with a 59% confidence rating.
Aldosivi Mar del Plata are the marginal favourites at 2.55, implying about a 39% chance. Banfield are priced at 3.14, around 32%, so the market rates the two sides fairly closely.
The draw is available at 2.94 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 34% probability. That makes it competitive with both match-result outcomes.
No value picks cleared our threshold here. The recommended Over 1.5 goals at 1.61 even shows a negative edge of about -4.96%, so there is no clear value against the market.
Aldosivi Mar del Plata vs Banfield takes place Sun · 20:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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