Serie A ยท Mon ยท 18:45 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Udinese are narrow favourites at 2.65 (about 38% implied), with Lazio at 3.08 (about 32%) and only a small price gap between them.
The draw at 3.19 (roughly 31%) is priced almost level with both sides, reflecting a balanced three-way market.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.43 implies around 41% confidence, so under 2.5 goals is the marginally more likely outcome by the odds.
The value edge on the goals pick is slightly negative at -1.37%, meaning no clear pricing advantage was found and no 1X2 value picks cleared the threshold.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.50 |
| 1-0 | 12.9% | 7.78 |
| 0-1 | 11.4% | 8.80 |
| 0-0 | 10.9% | 9.14 |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | 12.76 |
| 2-0 | 7.5% | 13.25 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.18 and 1.04. These six scorelines cover 64% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Udinese's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท UDI | X | 2 ยท LAZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.66 | 3.19 | 3.06 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.60 | 3.12 | 3.00 |
| Tipico | 2.55 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.45 | 3.05 | 2.85 |
| 888sport | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Serie A fixture between Udinese and Lazio arrives with a tight set of prices that point to a genuinely open contest. Udinese are the marginal home favourites at 2.65, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 38%, while Lazio sit at 3.08, or about 32% in probability terms. The draw is priced at 3.19, close to 31%, underlining how evenly the market rates all three outcomes. There is no clear standout selection on the match result, which is why our model looks past the 1X2 line and toward the goals market. Its recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 2.43, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 41%. That figure is worth weighing carefully, because the value edge sits slightly negative at -1.37%, meaning the price does not offer a clear advantage over the market's own assessment.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 2.43, but with an implied probability of about 41% and a negative value edge of -1.37%, this is a low-conviction selection rather than a strong edge. Treat it as a modest, calculated bet and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 16:30 | Bologna v Lazio | 3.40 | 2.34 | 3.55 |
| 24 Aug 18:45 | AS Roma v Fiorentina | 1.77 | 4.01 | 5.40 |
| 28 Aug 18:45 | AC Milan v Venezia | 1.40 | 5.06 | 10.50 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Monza v Udinese | 3.65 | 3.31 | 2.40 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Fiorentina v Frosinone | 1.69 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Sassuolo v Torino | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.55 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Juventus v Parma | 1.24 | 7.31 | 18.00 |
| 30 Aug 16:30 | Napoli v Como | 2.66 | 3.31 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como 1907 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Bologna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lazio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Torino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Venezia FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.65, with a 60% confidence rating.
Udinese are the slight favourites at 2.65, implying about 38%, with Lazio at 3.08, roughly 32%. The margin between them is small, so the market sees this as a close match.
The draw is priced at 3.19 with 1xBet, an implied probability of around 31%. That puts it almost level with both teams' chances.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.43 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -1.37%, so there is no clear market-beating value here.
Udinese vs Lazio takes place Mon ยท 18:45 in the Serie A.
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