Serie A ยท Sat ยท 16:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Fiorentina are strong favourites at 1.69, implying roughly 59% win probability, with Frosinone a long way back at 5.6 (around 18%).
The draw is priced at 4.35, implying about 23%, reflecting the sizeable gap in perceived quality between the sides.
Our model identifies value on the underdog and draw: Frosinone at 5.6 shows an 18.39% edge (fair prob 21%), and the draw at 4.35 shows a 9.87% edge (fair prob 25%).
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.92 sits near a coin-flip at 51% implied confidence, but carries a marginally negative value edge of -1.33%.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone to win | 5.60 | +3.2% | 18% | 54 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท FIO | X | 2 ยท FRO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 4.20 | 5.42 |
| Matchbook | 1.68 | 4.10 | 5.60 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.67 | 4.10 | 5.24 |
| BetAnything | 1.67 | 4.10 | 5.24 |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | 4.11 | 5.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Fiorentina host Frosinone in this Serie A fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Fiorentina are priced at 1.69 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 59%, marking them as clear home favourites. Frosinone are a distant outsider at 5.6 (Codere IT), around 18% in implied terms, while the draw sits at 4.35 (GTbets), about 23%. Rather than backing the favourite at a short price, our model steers toward the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.92 with 1xBet. That price carries a market-implied confidence of around 51%, essentially a coin-flip proposition on whether three or more goals are scored. It is worth noting the model flags a slightly negative value edge on this selection, so it is a lean rather than a standout number. The odds picture frames this as a contest the market expects Fiorentina to control.
Verdict: The model's lean is Over 2.5 goals at 1.92, essentially a 50/50 call on an open, goal-friendly game. With a slightly negative value edge, treat this as a modest pick rather than a priority. Stake responsibly and only within your planned bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 16:30 | Bologna v Lazio | 3.40 | 2.34 | 3.55 |
| 24 Aug 18:45 | AS Roma v Fiorentina | 1.77 | 4.01 | 5.40 |
| 28 Aug 18:45 | AC Milan v Venezia | 1.40 | 5.06 | 10.50 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Monza v Udinese | 3.65 | 3.31 | 2.40 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Sassuolo v Torino | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.55 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Juventus v Parma | 1.24 | 7.31 | 18.00 |
| 30 Aug 16:30 | Napoli v Como | 2.66 | 3.31 | 3.20 |
| 30 Aug 18:45 | Cagliari v Inter Milan | 9.00 | 4.54 | 1.52 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como 1907 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Bologna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lazio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Torino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Venezia FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.90, with a 52% confidence rating.
Fiorentina are the market favourites at 1.69, implying roughly a 59% chance, while Frosinone are outsiders at 5.6, around 18%.
The best available draw price is 4.35 with GTbets, which implies about a 23% probability. Our model rates the draw's fair probability slightly higher at 25%, giving a 9.87% edge.
The model flags value on Frosinone at 5.6 (18.39% edge) and the draw at 4.35 (9.87% edge). The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.92 actually shows a small negative edge of -1.33%, so it is a lean rather than a strong value play.
Fiorentina vs Frosinone takes place Sat ยท 16:30 in the Serie A.
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