Serie A ยท Sun ยท 16:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Napoli are the market favourites at 2.06 (about 49% implied), well ahead of Como at 4.42 (roughly 23%).
The draw is priced at 3.29, implying close to 30%, a fairly standard number for a home favourite fixture.
Our model flags Como as the biggest value angle, with a fair probability near 31% against a best price of 4.42, an edge of about 35%.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.27 shows a negative edge of -1.5%, making it a modest lean rather than a strong-value play.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.62 |
| 0-1 | 11.9% | 8.41 |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | 9.44 |
| 0-0 | 9.6% | 10.43 |
| 1-2 | 8.1% | 12.29 |
| 0-2 | 7.4% | 13.57 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.10 and 1.24. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Napoli's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท NAP | X | 2 ยท COM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.66 | 3.15 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.64 | 3.15 | 3.20 |
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 3.31 | 3.12 |
| Coolbet | 2.50 | 3.20 | 3.15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.52 | 3.23 | 3.07 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.50 | 3.26 | 3.05 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Napoli host Como at the Diego Armando Maradona in this Serie A fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about the direction of preference. Napoli are priced at 2.06 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 49%, marking them as clear favourites on home soil. Como sit out at 4.42, or around 23% implied, while the draw is offered at 3.29, close to 30%. That spread of prices frames the game as one the market expects Napoli to control without treating the outcome as a formality. Our model steps away from the match-result line and instead recommends Over 2.5 goals at 2.27, with market-implied confidence of about 43%. Notably, that pick carries a slightly negative value edge of -1.5%, so it is a lean rather than a standout price. Below we break down where the numbers point and how the value picks compare to the consensus.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 2.27, backed by roughly 43% implied confidence but a marginally negative value edge of -1.5%. Treat it as a low-conviction lean rather than a priority selection. The standout value on paper sits with Como at 4.42, though that carries clear underdog risk. Stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 16:30 | Bologna v Lazio | 3.40 | 2.34 | 3.55 |
| 24 Aug 18:45 | AS Roma v Fiorentina | 1.77 | 4.01 | 5.40 |
| 28 Aug 18:45 | AC Milan v Venezia | 1.40 | 5.06 | 10.50 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Monza v Udinese | 3.65 | 3.31 | 2.40 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Fiorentina v Frosinone | 1.69 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Sassuolo v Torino | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.55 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Juventus v Parma | 1.24 | 7.31 | 18.00 |
| 30 Aug 18:45 | Cagliari v Inter Milan | 9.00 | 4.54 | 1.52 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como 1907 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Bologna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lazio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Torino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Venezia FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.67, with a 59% confidence rating.
Napoli are the favourites at 2.06 with 1xBet, an implied probability of around 49%. Como are the outsiders at 4.42, roughly 23% implied.
The draw is available at 3.29 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of close to 30%. Our model rates its fair probability at about 33%, giving a small positive edge of around 7%.
According to our model, the clearest value is on Como at 4.42, where the fair probability of about 31% suggests an edge near 35%. The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.27 actually carries a slightly negative edge of -1.5%, so it is a lean rather than a value play.
Napoli vs Como takes place Sun ยท 16:30 in the Serie A.
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