MLS ยท Sun ยท 23:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
St. Louis City SC are the favourites at 1.97, implying about a 51% chance, while FC Dallas at 3.6 sit near 28%.
The draw is priced at 3.95, roughly a 25% implied probability, leaving the outcome reasonably open despite the home lean.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.25 carries a negative value edge of -6.15%, meaning it prices below fair value on our model.
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus for this fixture, suggesting limited standout edges in the current prices.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.7% | 9.32 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.25 |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | 12.80 |
| 1-0 | 7.4% | 13.57 |
| 0-1 | 6.5% | 15.43 |
| 2-2 | 6.5% | 15.46 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.66 and 1.46. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.27 | +5.3% | 25% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท SLC | X | 2 ยท FD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 4.27 | 3.65 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.97 | 3.95 | 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.84 | 3.67 |
| BetAnything | 1.93 | 3.84 | 3.67 |
| GTbets | 1.89 | 3.82 | 3.84 |
| Coolbet | 1.92 | 3.85 | 3.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This MLS meeting sees St. Louis City SC host FC Dallas, and the market leaves little doubt about the direction of favouritism. St. Louis are priced at 1.97, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 51%, marking them as clear home favourites. FC Dallas, at 3.6, are rated around 28% to take all three points, while the draw sits at 3.95, or about 25% in implied terms. Those numbers sketch a game the bookmakers expect St. Louis to shade without ruling out an away result. Our model, however, looks past the winner market entirely and lands on Over 3.5 goals at 2.25. That reflects a lean toward an open, goal-heavy contest rather than a call on the outcome. It is worth noting the market-implied confidence on this line is 42%, with a negative value edge of -6.15%, so this is a view to weigh carefully rather than back blindly.
Verdict: The model's pick is Over 3.5 goals at 2.25, a bet on an open, high-scoring game rather than the result. With a 42% implied confidence and a negative value edge of -6.15%, it is a higher-risk selection that prices below fair value. Stake responsibly and size accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 20:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Chicago Fire | 3.00 | 4.20 | 2.30 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New York City FC | 2.60 | 3.98 | 2.75 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v CF Montreal | 1.49 | 5.82 | 6.80 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | D.C. United v Los Angeles FC | 3.50 | 4.01 | 2.08 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union | 3.11 | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v New England Revolution | 1.98 | 4.17 | 4.00 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v Charlotte FC | 2.42 | 4.12 | 3.00 |
| 30 Aug 00:30 | Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC | 1.87 | 4.58 | 4.06 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.25, with a 42% confidence rating.
St. Louis City SC are favourites at odds of 1.97, implying roughly a 51% chance. FC Dallas are the outsiders at 3.6, around 28% in implied terms.
The draw is priced at 3.95 with LeoVegas (SE), which equates to an implied probability of about 25%.
No value picks cleared our threshold against market consensus here. The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.25 actually shows a negative value edge of -6.15%, so it is not a strong value play.
St. Louis City SC vs FC Dallas takes place Sun ยท 23:00 in the MLS.
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