MLS ยท Sat ยท 23:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Philadelphia Union are heavy favourites at 1.52, an implied probability of about 66%, while CF Montreal at 6.19 sit near 16%.
The draw is priced at 4.75, roughly 21% implied, yet our model rates its fair probability at 26%, giving a positive edge of about 21.87%.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.18 carries around 45% implied confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -2.93%.
The wide gap between the favourite and underdog prices reflects a market that expects Philadelphia to dictate the match.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.09 |
| 1-1 | 9.8% | 10.17 |
| 2-0 | 9.0% | 11.11 |
| 1-0 | 8.9% | 11.20 |
| 3-1 | 6.7% | 15.02 |
| 3-0 | 6.0% | 16.56 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.02 and 1.10. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 5.30 | +30.9% | 25% | 76 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท PU | X | 2 ยท CM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 5.30 | 6.29 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.46 | 4.50 | 6.05 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.46 | 4.60 | 5.70 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.41 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.44 | 3.95 | 4.40 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.04 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Philadelphia Union head into this MLS clash as clear favourites at home against CF Montreal, with the hosts priced at 1.52 with 1xBet. That translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 66%, underlining how strongly bookmakers lean toward Philadelphia. CF Montreal are the outsiders at 6.19, implying about a 16% chance, while the draw sits at 4.75, or around 21% in probability terms. Our model's recommended bet is Over 3.5 goals at 2.18, carrying a market-implied confidence near 45%, though the value edge here reads slightly negative at -2.93%. The more notable flag from our value screen is the draw, where the 4.75 price is judged generous against a fair probability of 26%, producing a positive edge. In short, the numbers frame a fixture the market expects Philadelphia to control, but with pockets of interest in both the goals and draw markets for those who like to explore alternatives.
Verdict: The model points to Over 3.5 goals at 2.18, a higher-variance market with roughly 45% implied confidence and a marginally negative edge, so treat it as speculative. The draw at 4.75 screens as the stronger value angle. Stake sensibly and only within your bankroll limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 20:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Chicago Fire | 3.00 | 4.20 | 2.30 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New York City FC | 2.60 | 3.98 | 2.75 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v CF Montreal | 1.49 | 5.82 | 6.80 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | D.C. United v Los Angeles FC | 3.50 | 4.01 | 2.08 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union | 3.11 | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v New England Revolution | 1.98 | 4.17 | 4.00 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v Charlotte FC | 2.42 | 4.12 | 3.00 |
| 30 Aug 00:30 | Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC | 1.87 | 4.58 | 4.06 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.76, with a 55% confidence rating.
Philadelphia Union are the favourites at 1.52, an implied probability of about 66%. CF Montreal are the outsiders at 6.19, around 16%.
The draw is available at 4.75 with 1xBet, which implies roughly 21% probability. Our model rates its fair probability higher at 26%.
Our value screen flags the draw at 4.75 as offering a positive edge of about 21.87%. The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.18 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -2.93%, so it is more of a preference than a value pick.
Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal takes place Sat ยท 23:30 in the MLS.
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