Serie A ยท Mon ยท 16:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Roma are strong favourites at 1.75, implying roughly a 57% chance, with a sizeable price gap to Lecce at 5.57.
The draw is priced at 3.79, implying about 26%, a fairly standard midpoint between the two sides.
Our model gives Lecce a fair probability near 19% against a market price of 5.57, producing a positive value edge of about 7.68%.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.37 carries only 42% implied confidence and a slightly negative edge of -1.35%, making it a modest lean.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 16.1% | 6.20 |
| 0-2 | 12.2% | 8.20 |
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.53 |
| 0-0 | 10.7% | 9.36 |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | 11.30 |
| 1-0 | 7.8% | 12.89 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.73 and 1.51. These six scorelines cover 67% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Lecce's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท LEC | X | 2 ยท AR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.93 | 3.87 | 1.70 |
| Unibet (SE) | 5.75 | 3.65 | 1.74 |
| Unibet (NL) | 5.75 | 3.65 | 1.74 |
| Betfair | 6.20 | 3.75 | 1.68 |
| Coolbet | 6.00 | 3.80 | 1.67 |
| Matchbook | 6.20 | 3.70 | 1.65 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Serie A brings Lecce and AS Roma together, and the market leaves little doubt about the pecking order. Roma are priced at 1.75, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 57%, marking them out as clear favourites on the road. Lecce, by contrast, sit at 5.57, or about 18% in the market's eyes, while the draw is quoted at 3.79, implying close to 26%. That price structure paints a picture of a game the bookmakers expect Roma to control without treating a home upset as impossible. Our model, rather than backing the result outright, leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 2.37, a line with market-implied confidence around 42%. It is worth noting the value edge on that pick is marginally negative at -1.35%, so it is a lean rather than a standout play. The more interesting number sits on Lecce, where our fair estimate suggests a positive edge.
Verdict: The model's headline recommendation is Over 2.5 goals at 2.37, but with a negative value edge and 42% implied confidence, this is a low-conviction lean rather than a strong signal. The more defensible value sits on Lecce at 5.57. Treat both as speculative and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 16:30 | Bologna v Lazio | 3.40 | 2.34 | 3.55 |
| 24 Aug 18:45 | AS Roma v Fiorentina | 1.77 | 4.01 | 5.40 |
| 28 Aug 18:45 | AC Milan v Venezia | 1.40 | 5.06 | 10.50 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Monza v Udinese | 3.65 | 3.31 | 2.40 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Fiorentina v Frosinone | 1.69 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Sassuolo v Torino | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.55 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Juventus v Parma | 1.24 | 7.31 | 18.00 |
| 30 Aug 16:30 | Napoli v Como | 2.66 | 3.31 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como 1907 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Bologna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lazio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Torino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Venezia FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.32, with a 43% confidence rating.
AS Roma are the favourites at 1.75, which implies roughly a 57% chance. Lecce are the outsiders at 5.57, around 18% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.79 with 1xBet, implying approximately a 26% probability.
Our model flags Lecce at 5.57 as the standout value, with a fair probability near 19% and an edge of about 7.68%. The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.37 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -1.35%.
Lecce vs AS Roma takes place Mon ยท 16:30 in the Serie A.
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