Serie A ยท Sun ยท 18:45 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Lazio are the market favourites at 1.99, an implied probability near 50%, while Genoa at 4.54 sit around 22%.
The draw is priced at 3.4, implying roughly 29%, so a share of the points is far from unlikely.
Our recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.67 implies about 59% confidence in a lower-scoring game, though its value edge is marginally negative at -1.52%.
The value model flags Genoa (fair prob 30%, edge 38.26%) and the draw (fair prob 32%, edge 10.11%) as prices that read generously versus consensus.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.8% | 7.25 |
| 1-1 | 13.2% | 7.59 |
| 0-0 | 11.1% | 9.04 |
| 0-1 | 10.5% | 9.48 |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 11.61 |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | 12.18 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.25 and 0.95. These six scorelines cover 65% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Lazio's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท LAZ | X | 2 ยท GEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.33 | 4.66 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.30 | 4.70 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.00 | 3.35 | 4.40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.00 | 3.35 | 4.40 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.93 | 3.30 | 4.70 |
| BetAnything | 1.93 | 3.30 | 4.70 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Serie A brings Lazio against Genoa, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it favours. Lazio are priced at 1.99 to win at home, translating to an implied probability of roughly 50%, while Genoa are the clear outsiders at 4.54, or about 22% in probability terms. The draw sits at 3.4, implying close to 29%. That spread paints Lazio as moderate favourites rather than overwhelming ones, with a genuine chance of the visitors or a stalemate frustrating them. Our model, however, steers away from the match-result line and toward the goals market: Under 2.5 goals at 1.67 carries an implied confidence around 59%. The value edge there is slightly negative at -1.52%, so this is a lean rather than a standout price. It reflects an expectation of a contained, lower-scoring contest rather than a firm read on the winner in this fixture.
Verdict: The model's pick is Under 2.5 goals at 1.67, reflecting an expectation of a contained match. With an implied confidence near 59% but a slightly negative value edge, treat it as a modest lean rather than a strong edge. Stake responsibly and only within a planned bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 16:30 | Bologna v Lazio | 3.40 | 2.34 | 3.55 |
| 24 Aug 18:45 | AS Roma v Fiorentina | 1.77 | 4.01 | 5.40 |
| 28 Aug 18:45 | AC Milan v Venezia | 1.40 | 5.06 | 10.50 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Monza v Udinese | 3.65 | 3.31 | 2.40 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Fiorentina v Frosinone | 1.69 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Sassuolo v Torino | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.55 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Juventus v Parma | 1.24 | 7.31 | 18.00 |
| 30 Aug 16:30 | Napoli v Como | 2.66 | 3.31 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como 1907 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Bologna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lazio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Torino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Venezia FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.39, with a 41% confidence rating.
Lazio are the favourites at 1.99, implying roughly a 50% chance, while Genoa are outsiders at 4.54, around 22%.
The draw is priced at 3.4 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of about 29%.
The value model highlights Genoa at 4.54 (fair prob 30%, edge 38.26%) and the draw at 3.4 (edge 10.11%) as generously priced, while the recommended Under 2.5 goals carries a slightly negative edge of -1.52%.
Lazio vs Genoa takes place Sun ยท 18:45 in the Serie A.
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