Serie A ยท Sun ยท 18:45 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Juventus are the favourites at 2.36 (about 42% implied), ahead of AC Milan at 3.3 (about 30%).
The draw is priced at 3.54, roughly a 28% implied chance, keeping all three outcomes fairly close.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.18 carries around 45% market-implied confidence.
That Over 2.5 selection shows a negative value edge of -1.41%, so it is not a clear-value spot.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.1% | 7.61 |
| 1-1 | 13.0% | 7.71 |
| 0-0 | 10.0% | 10.04 |
| 0-1 | 9.8% | 10.17 |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | 11.53 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.68 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.32 and 0.99. These six scorelines cover 63% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Juventus's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท JUV | X | 2 ยท AM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.39 | 3.37 | 3.32 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.34 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
| Tipico | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| 888sport | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Juventus host AC Milan in Serie A, and the market leans towards the home side. Juventus are priced at 2.36 with 1xBet, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 42%. AC Milan are the outsiders at 3.3 with Codere, implying around 30%, while the draw sits at 3.54, or about 28%. That spread points to a contest the market sees as competitive rather than one-sided, with Juventus favoured but far from dominant. Our model's attention is on the goals market rather than the winner: Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.18 with 1xBet, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 45%. Notably, that pick shows a slightly negative value edge of -1.41%, meaning the price is broadly in line with, or marginally short of, fair value. For anyone weighing this Juventus versus AC Milan fixture, the numbers suggest a close match with a reasonable expectation of goals, but no standout edge on offer.
Verdict: The model points to Over 2.5 goals at 2.18, reflecting an expectation of an open game. With a market-implied confidence near 45% and a slightly negative value edge, this is a marginal call rather than a strong edge. Treat it as a modest position and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 16:30 | Bologna v Lazio | 3.40 | 2.34 | 3.55 |
| 24 Aug 18:45 | AS Roma v Fiorentina | 1.77 | 4.01 | 5.40 |
| 28 Aug 18:45 | AC Milan v Venezia | 1.40 | 5.06 | 10.50 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Monza v Udinese | 3.65 | 3.31 | 2.40 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Fiorentina v Frosinone | 1.69 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Sassuolo v Torino | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.55 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Juventus v Parma | 1.24 | 7.31 | 18.00 |
| 30 Aug 16:30 | Napoli v Como | 2.66 | 3.31 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como 1907 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Bologna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lazio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Torino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Venezia FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80, with a 55% confidence rating.
Juventus are the favourites at 2.36 with 1xBet, an implied probability of about 42%. AC Milan are the outsiders at 3.3, around 30%.
The draw is priced at 3.54 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 28% chance. That keeps the three outcomes relatively balanced.
No pick cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.18 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -1.41%, so there is no strong value on offer.
Juventus vs AC Milan takes place Sun ยท 18:45 in the Serie A.
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