Serie A ยท Fri ยท 18:45 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Como are the market favourites at 1.77, implying about a 56% chance, well ahead of Genoa's 5.69 (roughly 18%).
The draw is priced at 3.63, about 28% implied, sitting between the two match-result outcomes.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 carries a market-implied confidence of around 57%, suggesting a lean toward a lower-scoring game.
The value edge on the Under is marginally negative at -1.64%, and no value picks cleared the threshold, so there is no strong edge against the market here.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 14.1% | 7.07 |
| 0-2 | 11.9% | 8.40 |
| 1-1 | 11.2% | 8.90 |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | 10.59 |
| 0-0 | 8.4% | 11.89 |
| 1-0 | 6.7% | 14.97 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.79 and 1.68. These six scorelines cover 62% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa to win | 5.50 | +18.1% | 21% | 65 |
| Draw (X) | 3.63 | +3.1% | 28% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Genoa's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท GEN | X | 2 ยท COM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.42 | 3.63 | 1.80 |
| Marathon Bet | 5.30 | 3.58 | 1.75 |
| Tipico | 5.50 | 3.60 | 1.67 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 3.30 | 1.75 |
| 888sport | 4.80 | 3.30 | 1.73 |
| Winamax (DE) | 5.10 | 3.50 | 1.64 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Genoa host Como in this Serie A meeting, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it favours. Como are priced at 1.77 with 1xBet, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 56%, marking the visitors as clear favourites despite playing away. Genoa, by contrast, sit at 5.69, implying only around 18% to take all three points, while the draw is quoted at 3.63, or about 28%. That spread underlines a contest the market sees as tilted firmly toward Como rather than a genuine coin-flip. Our model's attention falls not on the result but on the goals line, with Under 2.5 goals recommended at 1.73 and a market-implied confidence near 57%. It is worth noting the value edge on that pick is slightly negative at -1.64%, so this is a lean shaped by the pricing rather than a standout value opportunity in this fixture.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 1.73, backed by an implied confidence near 57%. It is a modest lean rather than a value edge, given the slightly negative -1.64% figure. Treat it as a low-conviction pick and stake responsibly, since the outcome remains uncertain.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 16:30 | Bologna v Lazio | 3.40 | 2.34 | 3.55 |
| 24 Aug 18:45 | AS Roma v Fiorentina | 1.77 | 4.01 | 5.40 |
| 28 Aug 18:45 | AC Milan v Venezia | 1.40 | 5.06 | 10.50 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Monza v Udinese | 3.65 | 3.31 | 2.40 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Fiorentina v Frosinone | 1.69 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Sassuolo v Torino | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.55 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Juventus v Parma | 1.24 | 7.31 | 18.00 |
| 30 Aug 16:30 | Napoli v Como | 2.66 | 3.31 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como 1907 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Bologna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lazio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Torino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Venezia FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.27, with a 43% confidence rating.
Como are the favourites at 1.77 with 1xBet, an implied probability of about 56%. Genoa are the outsiders at 5.69, roughly 18%.
The draw is available at 3.63 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of around 28%.
No value picks cleared our threshold for this fixture. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 actually shows a slightly negative value edge of -1.64%, so it is a lean rather than a clear edge over the market.
Genoa vs Como takes place Fri ยท 18:45 in the Serie A.
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