Serie A ยท Sat ยท 13:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Fiorentina are strong favourites at 1.85 (about 54% implied), with Torino well behind at 4.9 (about 20%).
The draw is priced at 3.74, implying roughly a 27% chance of honours ending even.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.18 has a market-implied confidence near 45%.
No selection cleared the value threshold, and the Over 2.5 pick actually carries a small negative edge of -1.41%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.18 |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | 9.48 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 11.00 |
| 0-1 | 8.2% | 12.15 |
| 2-0 | 7.8% | 12.76 |
| 0-0 | 7.1% | 14.08 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.49 and 1.16. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino to win | 5.01 | +15.8% | 23% | 65 |
| Draw (X) | 3.63 | +3.4% | 28% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Fiorentina's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท FIO | X | 2 ยท TOR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.85 | 3.63 | 5.01 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.81 | 3.55 | 4.90 |
| Tipico | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.70 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.74 | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| 888sport | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Fiorentina host Torino in this Serie A fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Fiorentina are priced at 1.85, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 54%, marking them as clear home favourites. Torino are the outsiders at 4.9, implying around 20%, while the draw sits at 3.74, or about 27%. That spread points to a market that expects Fiorentina to control proceedings without treating the outcome as a formality. Our model, rather than backing the result, leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 2.18, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 45%. It is worth flagging that this pick shows a slightly negative value edge of -1.41%, meaning the price offers no clear advantage over the market consensus. Approach it as a lean based on goal expectations rather than a standout value opportunity, and stake within your usual limits.
Verdict: The model points to Over 2.5 goals at 2.18, reflecting an expectation of an open game rather than a strong result lean. With a -1.41% edge, this is a marginal call offering no clear market advantage, so treat it as a modest lean and keep stakes measured.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 16:30 | Bologna v Lazio | 3.40 | 2.34 | 3.55 |
| 24 Aug 18:45 | AS Roma v Fiorentina | 1.77 | 4.01 | 5.40 |
| 28 Aug 18:45 | AC Milan v Venezia | 1.40 | 5.06 | 10.50 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Monza v Udinese | 3.65 | 3.31 | 2.40 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Fiorentina v Frosinone | 1.69 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Sassuolo v Torino | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.55 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Juventus v Parma | 1.24 | 7.31 | 18.00 |
| 30 Aug 16:30 | Napoli v Como | 2.66 | 3.31 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como 1907 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Bologna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lazio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Torino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Venezia FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.19, with a 45% confidence rating.
Fiorentina are the favourites at 1.85, implying roughly a 54% chance. Torino are the outsiders at 4.9, around 20% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.74 with 1xBet, which implies about a 27% probability of a stalemate.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.18 even shows a small negative edge of -1.41%, so it is a lean rather than a value play.
Fiorentina vs Torino takes place Sat ยท 13:00 in the Serie A.
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