La Liga 2 · Sun · 19:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Córdoba are favourites at 1.76, an implied probability of about 57%, well ahead of Granada CF.
Granada CF are the outsiders at 4.5, priced at roughly 22% to take all three points.
The draw at 3.98 implies around 25%, keeping a share of the market despite Córdoba's edge.
The Over 2.5 goals pick carries a negative value edge of -4.14%, meaning no pricing advantage over the market.
Córdoba's implied probability outweighs the combined draw likelihood, underlining the market's home lean.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 8.38 |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | 9.94 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.83 |
| 2-0 | 7.8% | 12.85 |
| 0-1 | 7.7% | 12.97 |
| 1-2 | 7.1% | 14.14 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.55 and 1.19. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CÓR | X | 2 · GC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 4.03 | 4.58 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.69 | 3.92 | 4.45 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.72 | 3.75 | 4.30 |
| Betsson | 1.68 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.68 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This La Liga 2 clash sees Córdoba host Granada CF, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Córdoba are priced at 1.76 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 57%, marking them as clear home favourites. Granada CF, by contrast, are out at 4.5 with Marathon Bet, implying only around 22% — a sizeable price gap between the two sides. The draw sits at 3.98, worth close to 25% in implied terms, so a stalemate is far from being dismissed by the bookmakers. Our model steers away from the match result and instead looks at the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 with a market-implied confidence of about 55%. That said, the value edge here is negative at -4.14%, so this is more a reflection of expected game flow than a pricing inefficiency to exploit.
Verdict: The model's recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.73, reflecting a roughly 55% confidence in an open game. It is a reasonable lean on game flow, but the negative value edge of -4.14% means there is no pricing advantage, so treat it as a modest, discretionary play and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 17:00 | Celta Fortuna v Andorra CF | 3.95 | 2.97 | 2.42 |
| 24 Aug 19:30 | Granada CF v Mallorca | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.58 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Tenerife v Sporting Gijón | 2.23 | 3.33 | 3.45 |
| 29 Aug 15:00 | Sabadell FC v Almería | 2.83 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
| 29 Aug 17:00 | Leganés v CD Eldense | 2.25 | 3.44 | 3.30 |
| 29 Aug 17:00 | Albacete v Oviedo | 2.45 | 3.23 | 3.09 |
| 29 Aug 19:30 | Girona FC v Las Palmas | 1.73 | 3.81 | 4.99 |
| 30 Aug 15:00 | Andorra CF v SD Eibar | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.70, with a 57% confidence rating.
Córdoba are the favourites at 1.76, which implies about a 57% chance. Granada CF are the outsiders at 4.5, roughly 22%.
The draw is priced at 3.98 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 25% probability of the game ending level.
No value picks cleared our threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 actually shows a negative value edge of -4.14%, so there is no pricing edge over the market here.
Córdoba vs Granada CF takes place Sun · 19:30 in the La Liga 2.
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