Serie A ยท Mon ยท 16:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Cagliari are the favourites at 2.43 (about 41% implied), but the margin over Lecce at 3.48 (about 29%) is narrow.
The draw is priced at 3.17, implying roughly 32%, reflecting an evenly balanced fixture.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.6 carries around 61% market-implied confidence.
No selection cleared the value threshold, and the Over 1.5 pick shows a slightly negative edge of -1.69%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.2% | 7.03 |
| 1-1 | 13.4% | 7.48 |
| 0-0 | 12.4% | 8.07 |
| 0-1 | 11.7% | 8.58 |
| 2-0 | 8.2% | 12.25 |
| 2-1 | 7.7% | 13.02 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.15 and 0.94. These six scorelines cover 67% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Cagliari's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท CAG | X | 2 ยท LEC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.19 | 3.39 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.40 | 3.12 | 3.32 |
| Tipico | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.25 |
| 888sport | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.25 | 3.05 | 3.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Cagliari host Lecce in this Serie A fixture, and the market leans toward the home side without treating them as heavy favourites. Cagliari are priced at 2.43, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 41%, while Lecce sit at 3.48, or about 29%. The draw at 3.17 implies close to 32%, underlining a matchup the bookmakers see as fairly open rather than one-sided. The gap between the two teams is modest, so a Lecce result is far from unlikely on these numbers. Rather than backing the match result, our model looks to the goals market. The recommended selection is Over 1.5 goals at 1.6, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 61%. It is worth noting the value edge here is slightly negative at -1.69%, meaning the price offers no clear advantage over the market's own assessment.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 1.5 goals at 1.6, backed by roughly 61% implied confidence. It is a lower-risk goals market rather than a value angle, since the edge is marginally negative. Treat it as a moderate-confidence pick and stake within your usual limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 16:30 | Bologna v Lazio | 3.40 | 2.34 | 3.55 |
| 24 Aug 18:45 | AS Roma v Fiorentina | 1.77 | 4.01 | 5.40 |
| 28 Aug 18:45 | AC Milan v Venezia | 1.40 | 5.06 | 10.50 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Monza v Udinese | 3.65 | 3.31 | 2.40 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Fiorentina v Frosinone | 1.69 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Sassuolo v Torino | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.55 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Juventus v Parma | 1.24 | 7.31 | 18.00 |
| 30 Aug 16:30 | Napoli v Como | 2.66 | 3.31 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como 1907 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Bologna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lazio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Torino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Venezia FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.60, with a 62% confidence rating.
Cagliari are the favourites at 2.43, implying about a 41% chance. Lecce are the outsiders at 3.48, or roughly 29%, so the gap is modest.
The draw is priced at 3.17 with 1xBet, which implies around a 32% probability, reflecting a closely matched fixture.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.6 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -1.69%, so it is a confidence-based pick rather than a value one.
Cagliari vs Lecce takes place Mon ยท 16:00 in the Serie A.
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