La Liga 2 · Mon · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Burgos CF are the favourites at 1.89, implying roughly a 53% chance, well ahead of Real Sociedad B at 4.49 (around 22%).
The draw is priced at 3.46, an implied probability of about 29%, sitting between the two match-result outcomes.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.3 carries market-implied confidence of around 42%.
The value edge on that Over 2.5 selection is negative (-3.92%), suggesting no clear pricing advantage over the market.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 16.7% | 5.99 |
| 2-0 | 12.2% | 8.23 |
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.44 |
| 0-0 | 11.5% | 8.73 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.59 |
| 0-1 | 8.1% | 12.29 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.46 and 0.71. These six scorelines cover 69% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BC | X | 2 · RSB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.77 | 3.58 | 5.04 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | 3.39 | 5.03 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.72 | 3.48 | 4.90 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.25 | 4.80 |
| Betsson | 1.72 | 3.35 | 4.60 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.72 | 3.35 | 4.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Burgos CF host Real Sociedad B in this La Liga 2 fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Burgos are priced at 1.89, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 53%, marking them as clear home favourites. Real Sociedad B, by contrast, sit at 4.49, an implied chance of around 22%, while the draw is quoted at 3.46, or about 29%. That price gap reflects a market that expects Burgos to control proceedings, though a fifth of the implied probability still sits with the visitors. Our model instead looks to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 2.3, with market-implied confidence of about 42%. It is worth noting the value edge on that selection is negative at -3.92%, so this is a lean rather than a standout value spot in this Burgos CF versus Real Sociedad B meeting.
Verdict: The model leans towards Over 2.5 goals at 2.3, reflecting an expectation of an open game. However, with a negative value edge of -3.92% and implied confidence near 42%, this is a modest lean rather than a strong edge. Stake responsibly and treat it accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 17:00 | Celta Fortuna v Andorra CF | 3.95 | 2.97 | 2.42 |
| 24 Aug 19:30 | Granada CF v Mallorca | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.58 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Tenerife v Sporting Gijón | 2.23 | 3.33 | 3.45 |
| 29 Aug 15:00 | Sabadell FC v Almería | 2.83 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
| 29 Aug 17:00 | Leganés v CD Eldense | 2.25 | 3.44 | 3.30 |
| 29 Aug 17:00 | Albacete v Oviedo | 2.45 | 3.23 | 3.09 |
| 29 Aug 19:30 | Girona FC v Las Palmas | 1.73 | 3.81 | 4.99 |
| 30 Aug 15:00 | Andorra CF v SD Eibar | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.20, with a 44% confidence rating.
Burgos CF are the favourites at 1.89, implying roughly a 53% chance. Real Sociedad B are the outsiders at 4.49, around 22%.
The draw is quoted at 3.46 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of about 29%.
Our model recommends Over 2.5 goals at 2.3, but the value edge is negative at -3.92%, so there is no clear pricing advantage. It is best viewed as a lean rather than a value bet.
Burgos CF vs Real Sociedad B takes place Mon · 17:00 in the La Liga 2.
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