Serie A ยท Sun ยท 16:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Bologna are the priced favourites at 1.95 (about 51% implied), but that margin leaves clear room for other results.
Sassuolo at 4.26 imply roughly a 23% chance, so a home win is favoured by a meaningful gap.
The draw at 3.73 sits around 27% implied, competitive with the away price and worth noting in a tight game.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.08 shows a negative value edge of about -1.53%, so it is a preference, not a proven edge.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.05 |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | 9.48 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.27 |
| 0-1 | 8.7% | 11.51 |
| 2-0 | 7.5% | 13.26 |
| 0-0 | 7.4% | 13.55 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.43 and 1.18. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo to win | 4.25 | +9.4% | 26% | 62 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Bologna's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท BOL | X | 2 ยท SAS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.56 | 4.25 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.96 | 3.48 | 4.15 |
| Tipico | 1.90 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| 888sport | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.88 | 3.40 | 3.85 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Serie A meeting between Bologna and Sassuolo sees the market lean clearly toward the hosts. Bologna are priced at 1.95, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 51%, marking them as favourites without making the outcome anything close to a formality. Sassuolo, at 4.26, are given about a 23% chance, while the draw at 3.73 sits near 27%. Those numbers describe a match the bookmakers expect Bologna to edge, but with enough uncertainty that both a stalemate and an away win remain realistic scenarios. Our model turns attention away from the winner and toward the total: Over 2.5 goals at 2.08, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 47%. That price actually shows a small negative value edge of about -1.53%, so it is a lean rather than a standout opportunity. Treat it as one angle among several and stake within your usual limits.
Verdict: The lean is Over 2.5 goals at 2.08, reflecting a market-implied confidence near 47%. Be aware the value edge is slightly negative at about -1.53%, so this is a modest angle rather than a strong signal. Keep stakes measured and bet responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 16:30 | Bologna v Lazio | 3.40 | 2.34 | 3.55 |
| 24 Aug 18:45 | AS Roma v Fiorentina | 1.77 | 4.01 | 5.40 |
| 28 Aug 18:45 | AC Milan v Venezia | 1.40 | 5.06 | 10.50 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Monza v Udinese | 3.65 | 3.31 | 2.40 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Fiorentina v Frosinone | 1.69 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Sassuolo v Torino | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.55 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Juventus v Parma | 1.24 | 7.31 | 18.00 |
| 30 Aug 16:30 | Napoli v Como | 2.66 | 3.31 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como 1907 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Bologna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lazio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Torino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Venezia FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.07, with a 48% confidence rating.
Bologna are favourites at 1.95, an implied probability of roughly 51%. Sassuolo are the outsiders at 4.26, around 23%.
The draw is priced at 3.73 with 1xBet, which implies about a 27% chance. That makes it competitive with the away win in pricing terms.
No pick cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.08 actually carries a small negative edge of about -1.53%, so it is a lean rather than a value bet.
Bologna vs Sassuolo takes place Sun ยท 16:00 in the Serie A.
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