MLS ยท Sun ยท 00:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Austin FC are the market favourites at 2.24 (about 45% implied), with San Jose at 3.1 (about 32%) and the draw at 3.82 (about 26%).
The model's recommended pick is San Jose to win at 3.1, backed by a value edge of roughly 9.58% over the market price.
A secondary value angle sits on the draw at 3.82, with a fair probability estimate near 27% and a smaller edge of about 4.39%.
The odds gap between favourite and underdog is moderate rather than wide, which is why the model sees the away price as potentially generous.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.6% | 9.47 |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | 11.71 |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | 12.22 |
| 0-1 | 6.8% | 14.66 |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | 15.13 |
| 1-0 | 6.5% | 15.31 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.55 and 1.62. These six scorelines cover 47% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.25 | +12.4% | 26% | 65 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท AF | X | 2 ยท SJE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.24 | 4.25 | 2.86 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.18 | 3.84 | 2.83 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.11 | 3.75 | 2.95 |
| 888sport | 2.15 | 3.90 | 2.70 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.90 | 2.70 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.00 | 3.65 | 2.75 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Austin FC host San Jose Earthquakes in this MLS clash, and the market leans clearly toward the home side. Austin are priced at 2.24, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 45%, marking them as favourites without making them overwhelming ones. San Jose sit at 3.1, or about 32% in implied terms, while the draw is offered at 3.82, around 26%. The gap between the two teams is meaningful but not enormous, leaving room for an upset. Our model actually looks past the favourite: it flags San Jose Earthquakes to win at 3.1 as the recommended bet, citing a value edge of about 9.58% against a market-implied confidence of 35%. In other words, the model believes the away price is longer than the underlying probability warrants. The draw is also highlighted as a secondary value angle at 3.82, carrying a smaller edge.
Verdict: The recommended play is San Jose Earthquakes to win at 3.1, a value-driven pick against the favourite rather than a safe one. With market-implied confidence around 35%, this is a higher-risk underdog bet. Stake responsibly and treat the draw at 3.82 as an alternative value option.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 20:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Chicago Fire | 3.00 | 4.20 | 2.30 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New York City FC | 2.60 | 3.98 | 2.75 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v CF Montreal | 1.49 | 5.82 | 6.80 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | D.C. United v Los Angeles FC | 3.50 | 4.01 | 2.08 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union | 3.11 | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v New England Revolution | 1.98 | 4.17 | 4.00 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v Charlotte FC | 2.42 | 4.12 | 3.00 |
| 30 Aug 00:30 | Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC | 1.87 | 4.58 | 4.06 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is San Jose Earthquakes to win at odds of 2.95, with a 36% confidence rating.
Austin FC are the favourites at 2.24, implying roughly a 45% chance. San Jose Earthquakes are the underdogs at 3.1, around 32% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.82 with 1xBet, which implies about a 26% probability. Our model estimates a fair probability closer to 27%, giving a small value edge of around 4.39%.
Our model identifies value on San Jose Earthquakes to win at 3.1, with an edge of about 9.58%, and a smaller edge on the draw at 3.82. Both are value angles, not certainties, so manage your stakes carefully.
Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes takes place Sun ยท 00:30 in the MLS.
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