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แ แแญแ โฝ Serie A ๐ Mon ยท 18:45
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
2.08
โ
Official pick โ published to our graded record ยท backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue ยท 51%
AI Value edge 5.81% ยท best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Atalanta are favourites at 1.91, an implied probability of around 52%, though that is far from a commanding edge.
02
Bologna's 4.3 price implies roughly 23%, and the draw at 3.86 sits close behind at about 26%, so the market keeps both alternatives live.
03
The recommended bet, Under 2.5 goals at 2.13, shows a value edge of about 7.38% against the market line.
04
With the model's confidence at 50%, this pick is effectively a coin-flip proposition where the edge comes from the price, not certainty.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 48%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.6% | 7.92 |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | 8.01 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.16 |
| 0-1 | 8.9% | 11.25 |
| 2-0 | 8.9% | 11.27 |
| 0-0 | 8.8% | 11.38 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.42 and 1.01. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
AB Atalanta BC WDLWD
23 Aug 26 vs Sassuolo 2-1
22 May 26 @ Fiorentina 1-1
17 May 26 vs Bologna 0-1
10 May 26 @ Milan 3-2
2 May 26 vs Genoa 0-0
BOL Bologna DWWDL
23 May 26 vs Inter 3-3
17 May 26 @ Atalanta 1-0
11 May 26 @ Napoli 3-2
3 May 26 vs Cagliari 0-0
25 Apr 26 vs Roma 0-2
Head-to-head: Atalanta BC v Bologna
Full H2H history โ L 17 May 26
Atalanta 0-1 BolognaSerie A
W 7 Jan 26
Bologna 0-2 AtalantaSerie A
W/D/L shown from Atalanta BC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท AB | X | 2 ยท BOL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.82 | 4.29 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.88 | 3.74 | 4.20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.85 | 3.75 | 4.30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.85 | 3.75 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.89 | 3.74 | 4.09 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Atalanta BC vs Bologna: match preview
Atalanta host Bologna in this Serie A clash, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Atalanta are priced at 1.91, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 52%, marking them as clear home favourites without being overwhelming. Bologna sit at 4.3, implying around 23%, while the draw is offered at 3.86, worth about 26% in probability terms. That spread points to a contest the bookmakers see leaning Atalanta's way, but with enough room for the visitors or a stalemate to complicate things. Rather than backing the result, our model steers toward the goals market. The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 2.13, carrying an estimated 50% confidence and a value edge of about 7.38% over the market line. It suggests the total, not the winner, is where the pricing looks most favourable in this fixture.
Verdict: Our recommended bet is Under 2.5 goals at 2.13, backed by a 7.38% value edge over the market. With confidence at just 50%, treat it as a fine-margin call justified by price rather than a strong lean. Stake responsibly and keep the outcome's uncertainty in mind.
Upcoming Serie A fixtures
All Serie A tips โ| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 16:30 | Bologna v Lazio | 3.40 | 2.34 | 3.55 |
| 24 Aug 18:45 | AS Roma v Fiorentina | 1.77 | 4.01 | 5.40 |
| 28 Aug 18:45 | AC Milan v Venezia | 1.40 | 5.06 | 10.50 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Monza v Udinese | 3.65 | 3.31 | 2.40 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Fiorentina v Frosinone | 1.69 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Sassuolo v Torino | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.55 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Juventus v Parma | 1.24 | 7.31 | 18.00 |
| 30 Aug 16:30 | Napoli v Como | 2.66 | 3.31 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Serie A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como 1907 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Bologna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lazio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Torino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Venezia FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Atalanta BC vs Bologna?+
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.08, with a 51% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite in Atalanta vs Bologna?+
Atalanta are the favourites at 1.91, which implies about a 52% chance. Bologna are longer priced at 4.3, roughly 23% in probability terms.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is priced at 3.86 with 1xBet, implying around a 26% probability, which places it just ahead of a Bologna win in the market's view.
Is there any value bet for this match?+
Our model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 2.13 as the value pick, with an estimated edge of about 7.38%. No match-result selection cleared our value threshold.
When does the match kick off?+
Atalanta BC vs Bologna takes place Mon ยท 18:45 in the Serie A.