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แ แแญแ โฝ Serie A ๐ Sat ยท 18:45
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.87
โ
Official pick โ published to our graded record ยท backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue ยท 55%
AI Value edge 3.23% ยท best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Roma are the market favourites at 2.25 (about 44% implied), with Atalanta the outsiders at 3.58 (about 28%).
02
The draw is priced at 3.42, roughly 29% implied, close to Atalanta's chances and underlining a balanced matchup.
03
Our recommended bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.87, with a market-implied confidence near 55% and a small value edge of 3.23%.
04
No value picks cleared the threshold in the match-result market, so the edge sits with the goals line rather than the outcome.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 46%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.1% | 7.61 |
| 1-1 | 12.9% | 7.75 |
| 0-0 | 9.8% | 10.19 |
| 0-1 | 9.6% | 10.38 |
| 2-0 | 8.8% | 11.36 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.56 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.34 and 0.98. These six scorelines cover 63% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
AR AS Roma WWWWW
24 May 26 @ Verona 2-0
17 May 26 vs Lazio 2-0
10 May 26 @ Parma 3-2
4 May 26 vs Fiorentina 4-0
25 Apr 26 @ Bologna 2-0
AB Atalanta BC WDLWD
23 Aug 26 vs Sassuolo 2-1
22 May 26 @ Fiorentina 1-1
17 May 26 vs Bologna 0-1
10 May 26 @ Milan 3-2
2 May 26 vs Genoa 0-0
Head-to-head: AS Roma v Atalanta BC
Full H2H history โ D 18 Apr 26
Roma 1-1 AtalantaSerie A
L 3 Jan 26
Atalanta 1-0 RomaSerie A
W/D/L shown from AS Roma's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท AR | X | 2 ยท AB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.26 | 3.48 | 3.50 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.21 | 3.40 | 3.42 |
| Tipico | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| 888sport | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
AS Roma vs Atalanta BC: match preview
This Serie A meeting between AS Roma and Atalanta BC sees the hosts installed as favourites at 1xBet, priced at 2.25 to take all three points. That equates to a market-implied probability of roughly 44%, marking Roma as the preferred side but far from a runaway pick. Atalanta are the outsiders at 3.58, or about 28% in implied terms, while the draw sits at 3.42, close to 29%. The spread between the two teams is meaningful without being dramatic, which points to a contest the market rates as competitive rather than one-sided. Our model, however, steps away from the result market and instead favours Under 2.5 goals at 1.87, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 55% and a modest value edge of 3.23%. That reflects a lean toward a tighter, lower-scoring affair rather than a firm view on the winner.
Verdict: The lean here is Under 2.5 goals at 1.87, supported by around 55% implied confidence and a slim 3.23% edge. It is a modest-value play rather than a standout, so treat it as a measured selection. Stake responsibly and keep the small margin in mind.
Upcoming Serie A fixtures
All Serie A tips โ| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 16:30 | Bologna v Lazio | 3.40 | 2.34 | 3.55 |
| 24 Aug 18:45 | AS Roma v Fiorentina | 1.77 | 4.01 | 5.40 |
| 28 Aug 18:45 | AC Milan v Venezia | 1.40 | 5.06 | 10.50 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Monza v Udinese | 3.65 | 3.31 | 2.40 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Fiorentina v Frosinone | 1.69 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Sassuolo v Torino | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.55 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Juventus v Parma | 1.24 | 7.31 | 18.00 |
| 30 Aug 16:30 | Napoli v Como | 2.66 | 3.31 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Serie A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como 1907 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Bologna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lazio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Torino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Venezia FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for AS Roma vs Atalanta BC?+
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.87, with a 55% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for AS Roma vs Atalanta BC?+
AS Roma are the market favourites at 2.25, which implies roughly a 44% chance. Atalanta BC are the outsiders at 3.58, around 28% in implied terms.
What are the draw odds for this Serie A fixture?+
The draw is priced at 3.42 with 1xBet, equating to an implied probability of about 29%. That is close to Atalanta's rated chance, reflecting a fairly balanced game.
Is there any betting value in this match?+
Our model flags Under 2.5 goals at 1.87 as the value pick, with a market-implied confidence around 55% and a small edge of 3.23%. No selections in the match-result market cleared the value threshold.
When does the match kick off?+
AS Roma vs Atalanta BC takes place Sat ยท 18:45 in the Serie A.