League One ยท Sun ยท 13:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
The match odds are almost inseparable, with Wigan Athletic at 2.6 and Wimbledon at 2.65, giving each side an implied probability near 38%.
The draw at 3.4 implies roughly a 29% chance, a realistic outcome given how evenly the market rates both teams.
Our model recommends Under 2.5 goals at 1.78, with a market-implied confidence of about 53%.
The value edge on that Under pick is negative at around -6.49%, and no picks cleared our value threshold, so this is a modest lean rather than a strong edge.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.0% | 7.67 |
| 0-1 | 11.2% | 8.94 |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | 9.53 |
| 0-0 | 9.0% | 11.11 |
| 1-2 | 8.1% | 12.35 |
| 2-1 | 7.6% | 13.18 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.17 and 1.24. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท WIM | X | 2 ยท WA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.12 | 3.26 | 2.33 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.05 | 3.30 | 2.33 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.05 | 3.30 | 2.33 |
| 1xBet | 2.96 | 3.25 | 2.37 |
| Coolbet | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.35 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.05 | 3.10 | 2.32 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This League One meeting between Wimbledon and Wigan Athletic looks about as tight as a match market can get. The visitors are priced at 2.6 to win, marginally shorter than Wimbledon at 2.65, meaning both sides are given roughly a 38% chance once you convert the odds into implied probability. In practice the bookmakers are struggling to separate them, which points to a contest that could realistically fall either way. The draw sits at 3.4, translating to around a 29% chance and a plausible outcome given how level the two match prices are. Rather than back either team on the result, our model leans towards the goals market: Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 carries a market-implied confidence of around 53%. That said, the value edge on this pick is negative at roughly -6.49%, so it reads more as a lean than a standout price in this Wimbledon versus Wigan Athletic fixture.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 1.78, reflecting a market that sees these teams as closely matched. With a 53% implied confidence but a negative value edge of about -6.49%, treat it as a low-conviction lean and stake responsibly rather than expecting strong value.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Blackpool v Peterborough United | 1.77 | 4.05 | 4.25 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Milton Keynes Dons v Leicester City | 2.90 | 3.56 | 2.42 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Stevenage v Doncaster Rovers | 2.24 | 3.30 | 3.32 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Leyton Orient v Barnsley | 2.28 | 3.73 | 3.05 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Plymouth Argyle v Bradford City | 2.28 | 3.63 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Sheffield Wednesday v Bromley FC | 1.90 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Stockport County FC v Wycombe Wanderers | 2.02 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Notts County v Burton Albion | 2.33 | 3.40 | 3.15 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.08, with a 45% confidence rating.
There is no clear favourite. Wigan Athletic are marginally shorter at 2.6 against Wimbledon at 2.65, so the market sees the two sides as almost level, each around a 38% implied chance.
The draw is priced at 3.4 with Coolbet, which implies roughly a 29% chance and is a credible outcome given how tight the match odds are.
None of our value picks cleared the threshold. The model's recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 actually shows a negative edge of about -6.49%, so it is a lean rather than a value bet.
Wimbledon vs Wigan Athletic takes place Sun ยท 13:00 in the League One.
English 
Espaรฑol 
Portuguรชs 
Deutsch 
Franรงais 
Kiswahili 
Hausa 
แ แแญแ