League One ยท Sat ยท 11:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Blackpool are favourites at 1.86 (about 54% implied), while Peterborough at 4.0 sit around 25%.
The draw at 3.96 is priced almost level with a Peterborough win, showing the market rates both away outcomes similarly.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.64 carries roughly 58% market-implied confidence, pointing to an open game.
The value edge on the recommended pick is -4.79%, meaning it is a probability-based lean rather than a genuine price edge.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.15 |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | 9.84 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.22 |
| 0-1 | 8.4% | 11.85 |
| 1-2 | 7.4% | 13.51 |
| 2-0 | 7.4% | 13.55 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.45 and 1.21. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท BLA | X | 2 ยท PU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 4.05 | 4.11 |
| 1xBet | 1.77 | 3.94 | 4.02 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.74 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.74 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| Coolbet | 1.75 | 3.85 | 4.20 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.75 | 3.94 | 4.05 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This League One clash sees Blackpool host Peterborough United, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Blackpool are priced at 1.86, which translates to an implied probability of around 54%, marking them as clear home favourites. Peterborough are the outsiders at 4.0, or roughly 25% in probability terms, while the draw sits close behind at 3.96, implying about 25% as well. The near-identical pricing of an away win and a draw shows the market sees the visitors' realistic path to points as narrow. Rather than backing the result outright, our model looks to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.64. That price carries a market-implied confidence of roughly 58%, suggesting the fixture is leaning toward an open, goal-friendly encounter. Bear in mind the value edge here is slightly negative, so this is a lean on likelihood rather than a standout price advantage.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 1.64, reflecting an expectation of an open contest with around 58% implied confidence. Be aware the value edge is slightly negative, so this is not a price-driven bet. Treat it as a moderate-risk selection and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Milton Keynes Dons v Leicester City | 2.90 | 3.56 | 2.42 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Stevenage v Doncaster Rovers | 2.24 | 3.30 | 3.32 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Leyton Orient v Barnsley | 2.28 | 3.73 | 3.05 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Plymouth Argyle v Bradford City | 2.28 | 3.63 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Sheffield Wednesday v Bromley FC | 1.90 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Stockport County FC v Wycombe Wanderers | 2.02 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Notts County v Burton Albion | 2.33 | 3.40 | 3.15 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Cambridge United v Huddersfield Town | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.62, with a 59% confidence rating.
Blackpool are the favourites at 1.86, implying roughly a 54% chance. Peterborough United are the outsiders at 4.0, around 25%.
The draw is available at 3.96 with Pinnacle, which implies approximately a 25% probability, almost identical to a Peterborough win.
No value picks cleared our threshold here. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.64 actually shows a negative edge of -4.79%, so it is a likelihood-based lean rather than a value bet.
Blackpool vs Peterborough United takes place Sat ยท 11:30 in the League One.
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