League One · Tue · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.05 |
| 0-1 | 10.7% | 9.34 |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | 11.20 |
| 1-0 | 8.6% | 11.57 |
| 0-2 | 7.7% | 12.99 |
| 0-0 | 7.4% | 13.42 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.16 and 1.44. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · WIM | X | 2 · MT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 2.60 | 3.35 | 2.60 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.60 | 3.35 | 2.60 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Wimbledon host Mansfield Town in a League One meeting where the bookmakers see almost nothing to separate the two sides on paper. Both teams are priced at 2.6 to win, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 38.5% each, while the draw at 3.35 carries an implied chance of about 29.9%. That three-way split points to a genuinely open contest rather than a clear favourite. Away from the match result market, our model has flagged Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 as its recommended angle, built on a 51% confidence read against an implied probability of 55.6% from the price itself. No selections in the broader value-picks list cleared our edge threshold for this fixture, underlining that the market here is fairly tightly priced across the board. Bettors weighing up Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town in League One should treat this as a close, hard-to-call game rather than one with an obvious lean.
Verdict:
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 19:00 | Mansfield Town v Oxford United | 2.40 | 3.69 | 3.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Peterborough United v Burton Albion | 1.93 | 4.18 | 3.85 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Milton Keynes Dons v Luton | 3.15 | 4.08 | 2.20 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Bradford City v Stevenage | 2.00 | 3.40 | 4.05 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Leicester City v Doncaster Rovers | 1.95 | 4.12 | 3.80 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Barnsley v Cambridge United | 2.52 | 3.80 | 2.75 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield Wednesday v Wimbledon | 1.68 | 4.10 | 5.25 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Wigan Athletic v Reading | 3.55 | 3.63 | 2.07 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80, with a 51% confidence rating.
Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town takes place Tue · 18:45 in the League One.
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