League One · Sat · 11:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Peterborough United's 2.0 price implies close to a 50% win probability, the clearest signal of favouritism in this matchup.
Burton Albion's 3.75 odds show a fair-value edge of 5.43%, with the model placing their true winning chance near 28% against an implied 27%.
The draw carries the largest identified edge at 9.15%, with a fair probability of 27% compared to the market-implied 24% from the 4.11 price.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.62 reflects 58% model confidence but shows a negative edge of -5.81%, suggesting the goals market is already closely priced.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.6% | 7.96 |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | 9.64 |
| 0-1 | 9.2% | 10.89 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.63 |
| 1-2 | 7.6% | 13.14 |
| 0-0 | 7.6% | 13.19 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.37 and 1.21. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · PU | X | 2 · BA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.92 | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 4.18 | 3.59 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.93 | 3.75 | 3.55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.93 | 3.75 | 3.55 |
| Coolbet | 1.82 | 3.85 | 3.85 |
| 1xBet | 1.82 | 3.98 | 3.71 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Peterborough United host Burton Albion in a League One fixture where the betting market draws a fairly clear line between the two sides. Peterborough are priced at 2.0 with the best odds available, which implies roughly a 50% chance of a home win, making them clear favourites on paper. Burton Albion, at 3.75, are given an implied probability closer to 27%, while the draw at 4.11 sits around 24%. Our model's recommended angle for this match is not on the result market at all but on Over 2.5 goals at 1.62, reflecting a 58% confidence level, though the calculated edge on that selection is slightly negative. Elsewhere, the numbers suggest some value against the market consensus, particularly around the draw and Burton Albion prices, both of which carry positive edges when compared with their fair-value probabilities. As always in League One, prices should be read as probability estimates rather than certainties.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.62 is grounded in a reasonably high model confidence of 58%, but the negative edge means it is not flagged as strong value, so stakes should stay measured. Bettors interested in result markets may find the draw and Burton Albion prices more aligned with the model's fair-value estimates.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 19:00 | Mansfield Town v Oxford United | 2.40 | 3.69 | 3.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Milton Keynes Dons v Luton | 3.15 | 4.08 | 2.20 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Bradford City v Stevenage | 2.00 | 3.40 | 4.05 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Leicester City v Doncaster Rovers | 1.95 | 4.12 | 3.80 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Barnsley v Cambridge United | 2.52 | 3.80 | 2.75 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield Wednesday v Wimbledon | 1.68 | 4.10 | 5.25 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Wigan Athletic v Reading | 3.55 | 3.63 | 2.07 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Wycombe Wanderers v Notts County | 2.06 | 3.60 | 3.79 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.60, with a 59% confidence rating.
Peterborough United are the clear market favourites at 2.0, which implies roughly a 50% chance of victory, well ahead of Burton Albion's implied 27% at 3.75.
The best available draw price is 4.11, implying about a 24% chance, though the model's fair-value estimate puts it slightly higher at 27%, giving a 9.15% edge.
The site's recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.62, though its edge is slightly negative; based on fair-probability comparisons, the draw and Burton Albion prices show more favourable edges of 9.15% and 5.43% respectively.
Peterborough United vs Burton Albion takes place Sat · 11:30 in the League One.
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