League One · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Huddersfield Town are the narrow market favourites at 2.6, implying roughly 38% win probability, just ahead of Plymouth Argyle's 36% at 2.75.
The draw is priced at 3.6, translating to about 28% implied probability, making it the least likely of the three outcomes but still a meaningful share of the market.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100%, reflecting normal bookmaker overround rather than any team having a dominant edge.
No match-result selection clears the site's value threshold, and the recommended Under 2.5 goals bet itself shows a negative value edge of -5.5% despite a 42% modelled confidence.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.4% | 9.64 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 11.01 |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 13.39 |
| 1-0 | 7.2% | 13.89 |
| 2-2 | 6.5% | 15.29 |
| 2-0 | 6.3% | 15.85 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.75 and 1.44. These six scorelines cover 47% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · PA | X | 2 · HT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.64 | 3.75 | 2.58 |
| Pinnacle | 2.67 | 3.58 | 2.49 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.48 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.48 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Coolbet | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| 1xBet | 2.67 | 3.50 | 2.41 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
League One action brings Plymouth Argyle and Huddersfield Town together, with bookmakers framing this as a tightly contested affair rather than a one-sided clash. The best price on Huddersfield, 2.6 with Unibet (NL), implies a win probability of roughly 38%, while Plymouth's top price of 2.75 at 888sport points to around 36%. The draw, available at 3.6 with Unibet, carries an implied chance of about 28%. With barely two points separating the win probabilities, the match-result market does not offer a clear standout. Instead, our model turns to the goals market, recommending Under 2.5 goals at 2.23 with LeoVegas (SE), a selection tied to a modelled confidence of 42% but carrying a calculated value edge of -5.5%, meaning it is not flagged as a strong value play on current pricing.
Verdict: The recommended Under 2.5 goals price of 2.23 reflects a close, evenly priced fixture rather than a confident edge, with the model's own -5.5% value edge suggesting caution. Bettors considering this line should treat it as a moderate-risk option rather than a strongly favoured pick, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 19:00 | Mansfield Town v Oxford United | 2.40 | 3.69 | 3.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Peterborough United v Burton Albion | 1.93 | 4.18 | 3.85 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Milton Keynes Dons v Luton | 3.15 | 4.08 | 2.20 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Bradford City v Stevenage | 2.00 | 3.40 | 4.05 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Leicester City v Doncaster Rovers | 1.95 | 4.12 | 3.80 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Barnsley v Cambridge United | 2.52 | 3.80 | 2.75 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield Wednesday v Wimbledon | 1.68 | 4.10 | 5.25 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Wigan Athletic v Reading | 3.55 | 3.63 | 2.07 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.23, with a 42% confidence rating.
Huddersfield Town are the slight market favourites at odds of 2.6, implying about a 38% win probability, just ahead of Plymouth Argyle at 2.75 (around 36%).
The draw is available at 3.6 with Unibet (NL), which implies roughly a 28% probability of the match ending level.
No match-result selection clears the site's value threshold, and the model's suggested Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.23 actually carries a slightly negative value edge of -5.5%, so it should be viewed as a moderate rather than a clearly favourable wager.
Plymouth Argyle vs Huddersfield Town takes place Sat · 14:00 in the League One.
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