League One · Tue · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Oxford United are priced at 1.87, implying roughly a 53-54 percent chance of victory, making them the clear market favourite over Wigan Athletic.
Wigan Athletic's 3.95 price implies around a 25 percent win probability, while the draw at 3.6 implies close to 28 percent, keeping that outcome live in the market's eyes.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals price of 1.83 reflects an implied 50 percent probability of three or more goals being scored.
The -8.0 percent value edge on the Over 2.5 goals selection indicates the market price is not currently favourable relative to the model's own estimate, so this is a marginal rather than a strong-value angle.
| Bookmaker | 1 · OU | X | 2 · WA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 1.87 | 3.60 | 3.95 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.87 | 3.60 | 3.95 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.80 | 3.45 | 3.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Oxford United host Wigan Athletic in a League One clash where the betting market leans clearly towards the home side. Best prices have Oxford at 1.87, which implies a win probability of roughly 53-54 percent, while Wigan sit out at 3.95 for an implied chance of about 25 percent. The draw is priced at 3.6, translating to around 28 percent. Combined, these figures show bookmakers expect a competitive but Oxford-favoured contest rather than a one-sided affair. Away from the result market, the highlighted angle for this fixture is a goals-based wager: Over 2.5 goals at 1.83, which corresponds to a 50 percent implied probability of the match producing three or more goals. The model flags this selection but with a value edge of -8.0 percent, meaning the quoted odds do not currently look generous compared to the model's own assessment, so it should be weighed carefully rather than treated as an automatic pick.
Verdict: The data points to Oxford as clear favourites, with the draw and Wigan outsiders priced accordingly. The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.83 carries a 50 percent implied probability but a negative value edge of -8.0 percent, suggesting bettors should treat it as a speculative option rather than a confident value play, and stake modestly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 19:00 | Mansfield Town v Oxford United | 2.40 | 3.69 | 3.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Peterborough United v Burton Albion | 1.93 | 4.18 | 3.85 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Milton Keynes Dons v Luton | 3.15 | 4.08 | 2.20 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Bradford City v Stevenage | 2.00 | 3.40 | 4.05 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Leicester City v Doncaster Rovers | 1.95 | 4.12 | 3.80 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Barnsley v Cambridge United | 2.52 | 3.80 | 2.75 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield Wednesday v Wimbledon | 1.68 | 4.10 | 5.25 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Wigan Athletic v Reading | 3.55 | 3.63 | 2.07 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.83, with a 50% confidence rating.
Oxford United are the clear market favourites at 1.87, implying roughly a 53-54 percent win probability, compared with Wigan Athletic's 3.95 price and about 25 percent implied chance.
The draw is available at 3.6, which implies an approximate 28 percent probability according to the market.
The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.83 with a 50 percent implied probability, but this comes with a -8.0 percent value edge, meaning it is not a standout value play and should be considered with caution.
Oxford United vs Wigan Athletic takes place Tue · 18:45 in the League One.
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