La Liga 2 · Sun · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Mallorca are strong favourites at 1.58, implying roughly a 63% chance, while AD Ceuta FC at 6.54 sit near 15%.
The price gap between the sides is wide, signalling the market expects a comfortable home advantage.
The draw at 4.05 implies about 25%, but the model assigns it a fair probability of 27%, giving a positive edge of around 8.33%.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.04 sits near 48% confidence but shows a slight negative value edge of -2.98%.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.17 | +8.8% | 26% | 62 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · MAL | X | 2 · ACF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 4.17 | 6.32 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.52 | 4.05 | 5.95 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.60 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.50 | 3.80 | 6.10 |
| Betsson | 1.50 | 3.80 | 6.10 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 3.80 | 5.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This La Liga 2 clash sees Mallorca hosting AD Ceuta FC, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Mallorca are priced around 1.58, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 63%, marking them as clear favourites. AD Ceuta FC, by contrast, sit out at about 6.54, or close to a 15% chance in the eyes of the odds, reflecting a substantial gap between the two sides. The draw is available at 4.05, implying around 25%. Our model, though, isn't chasing the favourite outright; it leans towards Under 2.5 goals at 2.04, with market-implied confidence near 48%. It's worth noting that pick actually carries a small negative value edge of about -2.98%, so it is a preference more than a standout price. The more interesting value flag falls on the draw, which the model rates at a fair 27% against its 4.05 price.
Verdict: The model's recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 2.04, a near coin-flip proposition at roughly 48% confidence. Be aware it carries a small negative value edge, so treat it as a lean rather than a priced-in advantage. The draw offers the clearer value signal. Stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 17:00 | Celta Fortuna v Andorra CF | 3.95 | 2.97 | 2.42 |
| 24 Aug 19:30 | Granada CF v Mallorca | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.58 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Tenerife v Sporting Gijón | 2.23 | 3.33 | 3.45 |
| 29 Aug 15:00 | Sabadell FC v Almería | 2.83 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
| 29 Aug 17:00 | Leganés v CD Eldense | 2.25 | 3.44 | 3.30 |
| 29 Aug 17:00 | Albacete v Oviedo | 2.45 | 3.23 | 3.09 |
| 29 Aug 19:30 | Girona FC v Las Palmas | 1.73 | 3.81 | 4.99 |
| 30 Aug 15:00 | Andorra CF v SD Eibar | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.76, with a 55% confidence rating.
Mallorca are the clear favourites at 1.58, which implies about a 63% chance. AD Ceuta FC are the outsiders at 6.54, or roughly 15%.
The best available draw price is 4.05 with Marathon Bet, implying around 25%. Our model rates its fair probability at 27%, giving a positive value edge of about 8.33%.
The model highlights the draw as the standout value at 4.05 versus a fair 27%. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.04 actually shows a slight negative edge of -2.98%, so it is more of a preference than a value bet.
Mallorca vs AD Ceuta FC takes place Sun · 17:00 in the La Liga 2.
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