2. Bundesliga · Fri · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Hertha Berlin are the market favourites at 2.3 (about 43% implied), ahead of Braunschweig at 2.85 (about 35%).
The gap between the two sides is fairly narrow, suggesting the market rates this as a close, competitive fixture.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 carries a market-implied confidence near 56%, but the value edge is negative at -2.53%, meaning the price offers no clear overlay.
The draw at 3.75 is highlighted as the best value angle, with a fair probability estimate of 28% versus a positive edge of 3.89%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.17 |
| 0-1 | 9.2% | 10.87 |
| 1-0 | 8.9% | 11.19 |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | 11.93 |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | 12.27 |
| 0-0 | 6.7% | 14.88 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.33 and 1.37. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · EB | X | 2 · HB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.59 | 3.61 | 2.60 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.60 | 3.55 | 2.61 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.62 |
| Coolbet | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
| Tipico | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This 2. Bundesliga meeting sees Eintracht Braunschweig host Hertha Berlin, and the market leans towards the visitors. Hertha are priced at 2.3, translating to roughly a 43% implied chance, while Braunschweig sit at 2.85, or about 35%. The draw is quoted at 3.75, worth around 27% in implied terms. That spread points to a contest the bookmakers see as competitive rather than one-sided, with Hertha holding a modest edge on paper. Our model, however, focuses less on the outright winner and more on the goals total: it recommends Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 with Tipico, reflecting a market-implied confidence of around 56% that this game clears the two-and-a-half-goal line. It is worth noting the value edge on that pick reads negative at -2.53%, so the price is fair at best rather than generous. A separate note flags the draw as the standout value angle.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.75, backed by around 56% implied confidence. Be aware the value edge is slightly negative, so this is a fair-priced rather than value-rich pick. Treat it as a moderate-risk bet and stake within your normal limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 16:30 | VfL Bochum v VfL Osnabrück | 1.67 | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| 29 Aug 11:00 | 1. FC Heidenheim v Dynamo Dresden | 2.31 | 3.85 | 2.90 |
| 29 Aug 11:00 | FC Energie Cottbus v Greuther Fürth | 2.57 | 3.85 | 2.65 |
| 29 Aug 11:00 | Karlsruher SC v VfL Wolfsburg | 3.70 | 4.00 | 1.95 |
| 29 Aug 18:30 | 1. FC Nürnberg v Arminia Bielefeld | 2.30 | 3.77 | 3.10 |
| 30 Aug 11:30 | FC St. Pauli v 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 1.87 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 30 Aug 11:30 | 1. FC Magdeburg v Holstein Kiel | 2.25 | 3.90 | 3.10 |
| 30 Aug 11:30 | SV Darmstadt 98 v Hannover 96 | 3.30 | 3.92 | 2.12 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.75, with a 55% confidence rating.
Hertha Berlin are the favourites at 2.3, implying roughly a 43% chance. Braunschweig are priced at 2.85, or about 35%.
The draw is priced at 3.75 with Coolbet, which implies around a 27% chance. Our model puts its fair probability slightly higher at 28%, giving a small positive edge of 3.89%.
The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.75 has a market-implied confidence of about 56%, but its value edge is negative at -2.53%. That makes it a fairly priced bet rather than a clear value opportunity.
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha Berlin takes place Fri · 16:30 in the 2. Bundesliga.
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