League One · Tue · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Stockport County are priced at 2.07, implying roughly a 48% chance of victory and making them the clear market favourites.
Doncaster Rovers at 3.35 imply around a 30% win probability, while the draw at 3.55 sits close behind at about 28%.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100% (about 106%), reflecting the standard bookmaker margin built into these odds.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.12 carries a modelled confidence of 43% but shows a negative value edge of -7.85%, meaning the price does not currently favour the bettor according to the model's own calculations.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.36 |
| 0-1 | 9.5% | 10.57 |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | 11.16 |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 12.52 |
| 2-1 | 7.6% | 13.23 |
| 0-2 | 7.1% | 14.12 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.26 and 1.50. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · DR | X | 2 · SCF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 3.35 | 3.55 | 2.07 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.35 | 3.55 | 2.07 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.20 | 3.35 | 2.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Stockport County head to the Keepmoat as clear favourites against Doncaster Rovers in this League One meeting, with the best available prices making the visitors' win the most likely outcome of the three. Stockport's 2.07 price implies a win probability of roughly 48%, well ahead of Doncaster's 3.35 (around 30%) and the draw at 3.55 (around 28%). Those numbers point to a fixture where the market sees a moderate but not overwhelming gap between the sides, leaving room for either a Doncaster upset or a stalemate. Away from the match-result market, our model's featured angle is Under 2.5 goals at 2.12, a goals-based bet rather than a selection on the outright winner. It carries a modelled confidence of 43%, giving bettors an alternative way to engage with the fixture beyond picking a side.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals pick at 2.12 is presented as the standout angle for this match, though its negative value edge of -7.85% means it is not flagged as a mathematically favourable bet. With no value picks clearing the threshold on the match-result market either, this looks like a fixture to approach cautiously and stake conservatively.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 19:00 | Mansfield Town v Oxford United | 2.40 | 3.69 | 3.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Peterborough United v Burton Albion | 1.93 | 4.18 | 3.85 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Milton Keynes Dons v Luton | 3.15 | 4.08 | 2.20 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Bradford City v Stevenage | 2.00 | 3.40 | 4.05 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Leicester City v Doncaster Rovers | 1.95 | 4.12 | 3.80 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Barnsley v Cambridge United | 2.52 | 3.80 | 2.75 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield Wednesday v Wimbledon | 1.68 | 4.10 | 5.25 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Wigan Athletic v Reading | 3.55 | 3.63 | 2.07 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.12, with a 43% confidence rating.
Stockport County FC are the favourites based on the best available odds of 2.07, which imply roughly a 48% chance of winning, compared with Doncaster Rovers at 3.35 (around 30%).
The draw is priced at 3.55, which implies an approximate 28% probability according to the market.
No match-result selection cleared the value threshold in this dataset. The model's highlighted bet is Under 2.5 goals at 2.12, though it actually shows a negative value edge of -7.85%, so it is not flagged as strong value either.
Doncaster Rovers vs Stockport County FC takes place Tue · 18:45 in the League One.
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