La Liga 2 · Mon · 19:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Castellón are the market favourites at 1.95, implying about a 51% chance of victory.
Celta Fortuna are priced at 3.8 (around 26%), marking a clear gap between the two sides.
The draw at 3.79 is almost level with the home win, both sitting near 26% implied probability.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.89 shows a negative value edge of -3.78%, so there is no pricing advantage on our model.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CF | X | 2 · CC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.05 | 3.83 | 1.87 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.94 | 3.72 | 1.82 |
| Betsson | 3.80 | 3.55 | 1.82 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.80 | 3.55 | 1.82 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.75 | 3.60 | 1.81 |
| Tipico | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This La Liga 2 clash sees Celta Fortuna host CD Castellón, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it favours. Castellón are priced as short as 1.95 for the win, translating to an implied probability of roughly 51%, while Celta Fortuna drift out to 3.8, or about 26% in probability terms. The draw sits close to the home side at 3.79, implying around 26% as well. In short, the pricing frames Castellón as clear but not overwhelming favourites, with a genuine chance of a stalemate or a home upset. Our model does not lean into the match result here; instead it looks at goals, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.89. That carries a market-implied confidence of about 51%, but the value edge is slightly negative at -3.78%, meaning the price offers no margin above fair value on our numbers. Approach accordingly and stake within your means.
Verdict: The model points to Over 2.5 goals at 1.89, backed by roughly 51% implied confidence. However, the negative value edge of -3.78% means the price offers no cushion over fair value. Treat this as a lean rather than a strong play, and keep stakes modest given the uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 17:00 | Celta Fortuna v Andorra CF | 3.95 | 2.97 | 2.42 |
| 24 Aug 19:30 | Granada CF v Mallorca | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.58 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Tenerife v Sporting Gijón | 2.23 | 3.33 | 3.45 |
| 29 Aug 15:00 | Sabadell FC v Almería | 2.83 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
| 29 Aug 17:00 | Leganés v CD Eldense | 2.25 | 3.44 | 3.30 |
| 29 Aug 17:00 | Albacete v Oviedo | 2.45 | 3.23 | 3.09 |
| 29 Aug 19:30 | Girona FC v Las Palmas | 1.73 | 3.81 | 4.99 |
| 30 Aug 15:00 | Andorra CF v SD Eibar | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80, with a 53% confidence rating.
CD Castellón are the favourites, priced at 1.95, which implies about a 51% chance of winning. Celta Fortuna are the outsiders at 3.8.
The draw is available at 3.79 with 1xBet, implying roughly a 26% probability, almost identical to the price on a Celta Fortuna home win.
Based on our model, no value pick cleared the threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.89 actually carries a negative value edge of -3.78%, so there is no pricing advantage.
Celta Fortuna vs CD Castellón takes place Mon · 19:30 in the La Liga 2.
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