League One · Tue · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Bradford City are priced as favourites at 2.12, implying roughly a 47% chance of victory according to the market.
Burton Albion (3.40) and the draw (3.35) are priced very closely together, both implying probabilities in the high-20s percent range.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100%, reflecting the standard bookmaker margin built into the match-result market.
The Over 2.5 Goals selection at 1.94 carries a negative value edge of -8.27%, meaning the model's confidence (47%) is lower than the price's implied probability (around 51%).
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.4% | 7.49 |
| 1-0 | 13.0% | 7.67 |
| 0-1 | 11.4% | 8.80 |
| 0-0 | 11.1% | 9.01 |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | 12.76 |
| 2-0 | 7.7% | 13.05 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.18 and 1.02. These six scorelines cover 64% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BA | X | 2 · BC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 3.40 | 3.35 | 2.12 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.40 | 3.35 | 2.12 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.05 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
League One action sees Burton Albion host Bradford City, with the betting market making the visitors clear favourites. Bradford City's best price of 2.12 with Unibet (SE) implies a win probability of roughly 47%, while Burton Albion's 3.40 suggests around 29%, and the draw at 3.35 sits close behind at just under 30%. That tight gap between the draw and the home win hints at a competitive, closely fought match rather than a one-sided affair. Away from the result market, our model points toward goals rather than a specific winner, flagging Over 2.5 Goals at 1.94 as the recommended angle. This price implies a break-even probability near 51%, slightly above the model's own 47% confidence reading, so it should be treated as a measured selection rather than a standout value play.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 Goals bet at 1.94 is a reasonable talking point given the tight match-result market, but the negative value edge means it is not flagged as a strong statistical edge. Bettors should treat it as a moderate-risk selection and size stakes with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 19:00 | Mansfield Town v Oxford United | 2.40 | 3.69 | 3.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Peterborough United v Burton Albion | 1.93 | 4.18 | 3.85 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Milton Keynes Dons v Luton | 3.15 | 4.08 | 2.20 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Bradford City v Stevenage | 2.00 | 3.40 | 4.05 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Leicester City v Doncaster Rovers | 1.95 | 4.12 | 3.80 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Barnsley v Cambridge United | 2.52 | 3.80 | 2.75 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield Wednesday v Wimbledon | 1.68 | 4.10 | 5.25 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Wigan Athletic v Reading | 3.55 | 3.63 | 2.07 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.94, with a 47% confidence rating.
Bradford City are the favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.12 with Unibet (SE), which implies about a 47% chance of winning.
The draw is priced at 3.35 with Unibet (SE), implying a probability of roughly 30%, close to Burton Albion's own win probability.
No standout value picks were identified above the threshold; the model's main suggestion is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.94, though this carries a negative value edge of -8.27%, so it should be viewed as a moderate rather than a strongly favourable bet.
Burton Albion vs Bradford City takes place Tue · 18:45 in the League One.
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