Greek Super League ยท Sun ยท 18:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Olympiakos are firm favourites at 1.47, implying around a 68% chance of victory, while Asteras Tripolis at 7.91 sit near 13%.
The draw is priced at 4.25 (roughly 24% implied) and flagged as a value pick, with the model assigning a fair probability of 26% and an edge of about 10.4%.
The recommended bet, Under 2.5 goals at 1.76, shows a value edge of just over 5% and a market-implied confidence near 60%.
The wide gap between the two match-result prices points to a lopsided matchup on paper, though favourite status never removes the risk of an upset.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 18.0% | 5.56 |
| 0-0 | 13.7% | 7.32 |
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.26 |
| 0-2 | 11.9% | 8.43 |
| 1-0 | 9.2% | 10.88 |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | 12.53 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.67 and 1.32. These six scorelines cover 73% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท AT | X | 2 ยท OP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 10.00 | 4.75 | 1.35 |
| Betfair | 8.40 | 4.80 | 1.37 |
| Pinnacle | 9.43 | 4.96 | 1.32 |
| 1xBet | 9.30 | 4.80 | 1.33 |
| Betsson | 8.69 | 4.55 | 1.34 |
| Nordic Bet | 8.60 | 4.55 | 1.34 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
The Greek Super League clash between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus lands with a clear favourite in the eyes of the market. Olympiakos are priced at just 1.47 to take all three points, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 68%, marking them as strong away favourites. Asteras Tripolis, by contrast, are out at 7.91 (about 13% implied), while the draw sits at 4.25, or around 24% in probability terms. Rather than backing the heavily favoured side at a short price, our model steers toward the goals market: Under 2.5 goals at 1.76 carries a market-implied confidence of about 60% and a value edge of just over 5%. The pricing suggests a game where one team is expected to dominate, but not necessarily one flooded with goals, which is where the recommended selection finds its footing.
Verdict: The model's pick is Under 2.5 goals at 1.76, supported by a modest 5% value edge and roughly 60% implied confidence. It is a reasonable, moderate-risk angle in a match with a clear favourite. As always, no outcome is certain, so stake within a comfortable bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Volos FC v Iraklis FC | 2.09 | 3.15 | 3.84 |
| 29 Aug 18:30 | Panetolikos Agrinio v Kalamata FC | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.52 |
| 30 Aug 16:30 | Aris Thessaloniki v OFI Crete | 1.71 | 4.00 | 5.25 |
| 30 Aug 17:15 | Atromitos Athens v PAOK Thessaloniki | 6.00 | 4.20 | 1.58 |
| 30 Aug 18:00 | AE Kifisia FC v AEK Athens | 8.75 | 4.92 | 1.38 |
| 31 Aug 16:30 | Levadiakos v Panathinaikos | 4.50 | 3.75 | 1.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.90, with a 58% confidence rating.
Olympiakos Piraeus are the favourites at 1.47, which implies about a 68% chance of winning. Asteras Tripolis are the outsiders at 7.91, around 13% implied.
The best available draw price is 4.25, equal to roughly a 24% implied probability. Our model rates its fair probability slightly higher at 26%, giving an edge of about 10.4%.
Two angles stand out: the draw at 4.25 shows a value edge of around 10.4%, and the recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.76 carries an edge of just over 5%. Value indicates a favourable price, not a guaranteed result.
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus takes place Sun ยท 18:00 in the Greek Super League.
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