Greek Super League ยท Sun ยท 16:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Aris Thessaloniki are favourites at 1.85, an implied probability near 54%, but the price is short of a dominant home lock.
OFI Crete at 4.67 imply roughly 21%, yet the model's fair probability of 24% suggests a 10.57% value edge on the away side.
The draw is priced at 3.54, about a 28% implied chance, a fairly standard number for a game with a clear favourite.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.11 carries 45% implied confidence but a negative -4.34% edge, so the price offers no market value cushion.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 11.9% | 8.37 |
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 8.39 |
| 2-0 | 9.5% | 10.52 |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 10.54 |
| 0-0 | 7.5% | 13.33 |
| 0-1 | 7.5% | 13.37 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.59 and 1.00. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท AT | X | 2 ยท OC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.65 | 4.00 | 5.25 |
| Betfair | 1.71 | 3.75 | 4.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 3.84 | 4.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 3.84 | 4.89 |
| Betsson | 1.63 | 3.69 | 5.14 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.65 | 3.70 | 4.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
The Greek Super League brings Aris Thessaloniki against OFI Crete, and the market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Aris are priced at 1.85, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 54%, marking them as clear home favourites without being an overwhelming lock. OFI Crete sit at the other end at 4.67, implying around 21%, while the draw is quoted at 3.54, or about 28%. That spread reflects a match the bookmakers expect Aris to control, though the pricing keeps the door open for an away upset. Our model, however, steps away from the result market and looks at goals: the recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.11, carrying a market-implied confidence of 45%. Worth noting is that this pick shows a negative value edge of -4.34%, so it is more a preferred lean than a standout price. The genuine value flag falls on OFI Crete at 4.67.
Verdict: The model's lean is Over 2.5 goals at 2.11, but with a negative value edge it is a low-conviction call rather than a priced advantage. The clearer value flag sits on OFI Crete at 4.67. Treat both as speculative and stake within a sensible bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Volos FC v Iraklis FC | 2.09 | 3.15 | 3.84 |
| 29 Aug 18:30 | Panetolikos Agrinio v Kalamata FC | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.52 |
| 30 Aug 17:15 | Atromitos Athens v PAOK Thessaloniki | 6.00 | 4.20 | 1.58 |
| 30 Aug 18:00 | Asteras Tripolis v Olympiakos Piraeus | 10.50 | 4.96 | 1.37 |
| 30 Aug 18:00 | AE Kifisia FC v AEK Athens | 8.75 | 4.92 | 1.38 |
| 31 Aug 16:30 | Levadiakos v Panathinaikos | 4.50 | 3.75 | 1.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 49% confidence rating.
Aris Thessaloniki are the favourites at 1.85, which implies roughly a 54% chance of victory. OFI Crete are the outsiders at 4.67, around 21% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.54 with 1xBet, implying about a 28% probability of the game ending level.
The model highlights OFI Crete at 4.67 as the value pick, with a fair probability of 24% against the implied 21%, a 10.57% edge. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.11 actually shows a negative edge of -4.34%, so it is a lean rather than a value play.
Aris Thessaloniki vs OFI Crete takes place Sun ยท 16:30 in the Greek Super League.
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