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How prices move before kick-off

Every published pick's price is snapshotted at each pipeline run. Across 945 tracked picks the line moved 7% on average between our first quote and the last one before the match — and which way it moved is information about whose money arrived late.

Recomputed Oct 13, 2026 · snapshots are pipeline-run frequency, so intraday spikes between runs are invisible · how we work

Movement by league

LeaguePicks tracked Avg moveShortenedDriftedBiggest drop
La Liga 60 34.4% 30.0% 60.0% -16.1%
Eredivisie 23 8.1% 26.1% 65.2% -8.3%
Austrian Bundesliga 25 7.7% 28.0% 68.0% -9.1%
Liga Profesional 42 7.5% 38.1% 57.1% -23.4%
Greek Super League 22 7.3% 40.9% 59.1% -9.4%
Champions League 9 7.1% 44.4% 55.6% -18.3%
2. Bundesliga 11 6.7% 9.1% 90.9% -0.7%
Belgian Pro League 21 6.0% 28.6% 66.7% -10.0%
Eliteserien 34 6.0% 38.2% 61.8% -27.8%
Brasileirão 87 5.9% 27.6% 62.1% -11.9%
Liga MX 20 5.7% 25.0% 70.0% -14.2%
Allsvenskan 31 5.6% 16.1% 83.9% -7.8%
Serie A 40 5.5% 32.5% 60.0% -13.4%
Championship 35 5.4% 22.9% 77.1% -9.1%
Ligue 1 36 5.3% 25.0% 69.4% -8.1%
Primeira Liga 30 5.0% 26.7% 66.7% -9.4%
Süper Lig 21 4.9% 52.4% 47.6% -7.3%
Scottish Premiership 27 4.6% 29.6% 63.0% -11.8%
J1 League 30 4.6% 30.0% 66.7% -6.3%
La Liga 2 16 4.6% 50.0% 50.0% -11.0%
Ekstraklasa 30 4.5% 16.7% 80.0% -2.8%
Danish Superliga 17 4.4% 29.4% 64.7% -5.7%
League One 24 4.4% 33.3% 66.7% -10.9%
Premier League 49 4.0% 51.0% 44.9% -21.2%
Bundesliga 29 4.0% 48.3% 37.9% -19.1%
MLS 176 3.3% 39.8% 52.8% -15.8%

Avg move = mean absolute price change between first and last snapshot. Shortened = share of picks whose price fell (money arrived on them); drifted = share whose price rose. Leagues qualify at 8+ tracked picks; hover the biggest drop for the fixture.

Why line movement matters

A price that shortens after you bet it means later money agreed with you; a price that drifts means the market moved against your position. Aggregated honestly, that is the fastest feedback loop in betting — far faster than results, which need hundreds of bets to say anything. It is the same logic as closing line value, measured here across every pick we publish rather than curated highlights.

Two limits worth stating plainly. Our snapshots run at pipeline frequency, twice a day, so intraday spikes between runs are invisible — the true movement is larger than what this table can see. And movement is not profit: a shortening price validates the direction of a pick, not its size. The CLV experiment is where we measure whether our picks systematically beat the close; this page shows the raw material that verdict is built from.

The practical use for a reader: leagues at the top of the table are where prices are least settled at our publish time — which is where early prices are most valuable and where line shopping pays most. The dropping odds page tracks the current movers live.

⚠️ Our AI model is still learning from match data. All predictions are experimental statistical estimates for information purposes only — not financial advice and not an invitation to bet. Outcomes are never guaranteed. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.