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አማርኛ Hardest to call first
| # | League | Matches | Home % | Draw % | Away % | Goals/game | BTTS % | Over 2.5 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Primeira Liga | 365 | 40.8% | 27.4% | 31.8% | 2.7 | 48.2% | 54% |
| 2 | Premier League | 430 | 41.9% | 27.9% | 30.2% | 2.76 | 55.3% | 54.7% |
| 3 | Serie A | 429 | 39.4% | 25.2% | 35.4% | 2.48 | 46.9% | 46.6% |
| 4 | Championship | 652 | 41.6% | 27.1% | 31.3% | 2.64 | 58.3% | 52.5% |
| 5 | Eredivisie | 369 | 42% | 26.3% | 31.7% | 3.29 | 64% | 64.2% |
| 6 | Bundesliga | 341 | 44.6% | 24% | 31.4% | 3.29 | 61.3% | 65.1% |
| 7 | Ligue 1 | 349 | 45.6% | 24.9% | 29.5% | 2.83 | 51.9% | 53.6% |
| 8 | Primera Division | 448 | 48.4% | 24.6% | 27% | 2.74 | 56.7% | 50.9% |
| 9 | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A | 653 | 48.9% | 27% | 24.2% | 2.58 | 52.2% | 48.1% |
| 10 | UEFA Champions League | 207 | 51.2% | 16.9% | 31.9% | 3.53 | 58% | 66.7% |
Ranked by how evenly outcomes are spread (the gap between the most and least common result) — a smaller gap means a league is harder to call from the table position alone.
What the data says
Three patterns stand out. Home advantage is alive everywhere but far from uniform — the strongest home leagues sit around 51.2% home wins, while the flattest are near 39.4%. Draw rates cluster in the mid-twenties, which is exactly why bookmakers can price the draw generously and why our model runs a dedicated draw-value track. And goals vary by almost a full goal per game between the highest and lowest scoring competitions — the difference between an Over 2.5 league and an Under league is structural, not luck.
For bettors the lesson is to price the league, not just the teams: identical odds mean different things in a league where 47% of games go to the home side versus one where 38% do. Our match pages surface this context automatically — every fixture shows both teams' form, the head-to-head history and the league table next to the market prices.
Methodology: all completed fixtures in our football-data.org snapshot (current plus previous season per league). Percentages are shares of played matches; the page recomputes on every daily refresh as new rounds finish.