Austrian Bundesliga · kicked off 13 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
WSG Tirol are market favourites at 2.2, implying roughly a 45% win probability compared to Hartberg's 31% at 3.2.
The draw is priced at 3.5 (28.57% implied), keeping a stalemate a live outcome according to the market.
Total implied probability across the three outcomes is about 105%, reflecting normal bookmaker overround rather than any single side being overwhelmingly backed.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.8 carries a stated -5.26% value edge, meaning the model does not see this as a clear-cut edge despite its 53% confidence reading.
W/D/L shown from WSG Tirol's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
WSG Tirol host Hartberg in the Austrian Bundesliga with the betting market clearly leaning toward the home side. At 2.2 with 1xBet, WSG Tirol's price implies a win probability of around 45%, while Hartberg's best odds of 3.2 from Tipico put their chances at roughly 31%. The draw, best priced at 3.5 with Coolbet, sits at an implied 29%, keeping this from being a lopsided match on paper. Away from the match-result market, our model points to Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 with Tipico as the recommended angle, suggesting the sides could combine for goals rather than settle into a cagey contest. That said, the model itself flags a negative value edge on this selection, so it should be treated as a moderate-conviction pick rather than a standout opportunity.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.8 reflects the model's lean toward an open scoreline, but the quoted -5.26% edge shows it is not a strong value play. Bettors considering it should treat it as a measured, moderate-risk option rather than a confident recommendation, and size stakes accordingly.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Ried | 2.60 | 3.42 | 2.53 |
| 10 Oct 17:30 | Austria Wien v Sturm Graz | 3.40 | 3.62 | 2.05 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Hartberg v Austria Lustenau | 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 15:00 | LASK v Rapid Wien | 1.80 | 3.84 | 3.94 |
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.29 | 5.80 | 8.75 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.05 | 5.30 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.22.
WSG Tirol are favoured by the market, priced at 2.2 for the win, which implies about a 45% probability compared to Hartberg's 31% at 3.2.
The draw is available at 3.5 with Coolbet, implying roughly a 29% chance according to the market.
The listed value picks section shows no selections above the value threshold, and even the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.8 carries a negative value edge of -5.26%, so no strong market inefficiency is indicated by this data.
The tip lost — final score 2-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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