Championship · kicked off 19 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Southampton are priced shortest at 2.5 (about 40% implied probability), making them market favourites over Wrexham AFC.
Wrexham's best odds of 3.15 imply roughly 31.7% probability, notably behind Southampton but ahead of the draw.
The draw at 3.75 carries the lowest implied probability of the three outcomes at around 26.7%.
The model's 44% confidence in a Southampton win exceeds the market-implied 40%, producing a value edge of about 10.78%.
W/D/L shown from Wrexham AFC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Wrexham AFC host Southampton in a Championship clash where the betting market clearly leans toward the visitors. Southampton's best-priced odds of 2.5 imply a win probability of roughly 40%, making them the outright favourites over Wrexham, who are priced at 3.15 (about 31.7% implied) and the draw at 3.75 (around 26.7% implied). Those numbers suggest a competitive but favourite-leaning contest rather than a one-sided affair. Our recommended selection is Southampton to win at 2.5, based on a model confidence of 44%, which sits above the market's implied 40% and points to a value edge of just under 11%. No other selections in this match cleared our value threshold, so this remains the standout pick from the data available for the fixture.
Verdict: Southampton to win at 2.5 is the recommended angle, supported by a modest value edge over the market's implied probability. It is not a heavily one-sided match by the odds, so this should be treated as a value-based lean rather than a high-confidence certainty, and staked with normal bankroll discipline.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip was Southampton to win at odds of 2.50.
Southampton are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.5 which implies roughly a 40% chance of winning, compared to Wrexham's 3.15 (about 31.7%).
The best available draw price is 3.75, which implies an approximate 26.7% probability, the lowest of the three match-result outcomes.
According to the model, yes: Southampton's 2.5 price implies about 40% probability, but the model rates their winning chance at 44%, producing a value edge of roughly 10.78%.
The tip lost — final score 2-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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