Championship · Fri · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
West Ham's 1.55 price implies a win probability near 64-65 percent, making them clear favourites over Queens Park Rangers in this Championship meeting
QPR's 6.8 odds imply roughly a 15 percent chance, reflecting a sizeable gap between the two sides according to the market
The draw at 4.9 implies about 20 percent, and the model's fair probability of 21 percent for that outcome creates a small positive edge of around 3.1 percent
The featured Over 3.5 goals selection at 2.29 carries model confidence of 42 percent against a market-implied 43.7 percent, meaning the market price is slightly under what the model calls fair value, an edge of -4.1 percent
| Bookmaker | 1 · WHU | X | 2 · QPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Codere (IT) | 1.43 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 4.62 | 5.69 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.52 | 4.35 | 5.91 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 4.30 | 5.50 |
| Betsson | 1.52 | 4.30 | 5.85 |
| 1xBet | 1.48 | 4.45 | 5.92 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
West Ham United host Queens Park Rangers in a Championship fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the balance of power. Best prices make West Ham strong favourites at 1.55, which implies a win probability of roughly 64-65 percent. QPR, at 6.8, are priced at around 15 percent, while the draw sits at 4.9, translating to just over 20 percent. Those numbers point to a game the market expects the hosts to control, though Championship favourites do not always convert that status into results. Away from the result market, the model's headlined selection is Over 3.5 goals at 2.29, a goals-based angle rather than a pick on the winner, while a separate value note flags the draw as offering a modest edge over its market-implied probability.
Verdict: West Ham are heavily favoured by the market, but the highlighted Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.29 actually shows a negative edge versus the model's own probability estimate, so it should be treated as a speculative goals angle rather than a high-confidence recommendation. The draw's positive edge is worth noting too, though both remain uncertain outcomes; staking discipline is advised.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City | 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.74 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.31, with a 42% confidence rating.
West Ham United are strong favourites according to the market, priced at 1.55, which implies a win probability of roughly 64-65 percent, well ahead of QPR's 6.8 price.
The best available draw price is 4.9, implying a probability of about 20 percent. The model's fair probability estimate for the draw is slightly higher at 21 percent, giving a small edge of around 3.1 percent.
The model highlights Over 3.5 goals at 2.29 as its recommended bet, but its own confidence figure of 42 percent is slightly below the market-implied 43.7 percent, producing a negative edge of about -4.1 percent, so it is not a clear value angle by the model's own measure.
West Ham United vs Queens Park Rangers takes place Fri · 19:00 in the Championship.
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