Championship · kicked off 12 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
West Bromwich Albion are priced at 2.14, implying roughly a 47% chance of victory, the shortest price of the three outcomes.
The draw sits at 3.8, translating to an implied probability of about 26%, only marginally behind Queens Park Rangers' own win probability.
Queens Park Rangers at 4.1 imply around 24% win probability, the longest price on the market, yet still carry the largest calculated value edge at 7.35%.
The recommended bet, West Bromwich Albion to win, shows a 3.11% edge against a 48% fair probability, a modest rather than overwhelming statistical advantage.
West Bromwich Albion host Queens Park Rangers in the Championship with the home side installed as clear market favourites. Best available odds of 2.14 on West Brom imply a win probability of roughly 47%, well ahead of the draw at 3.8 (about 26%) and Queens Park Rangers at 4.1 (around 24%). That gap in the pricing reflects a meaningful expected edge for the hosts across this fixture. Our model's recommended selection is West Bromwich Albion to win at 2.14, with a market-implied confidence of 48% and a calculated value edge of 3.11%, suggesting the price on offer may slightly undervalue their chances relative to the model's own estimate. Queens Park Rangers, priced as outsiders, also carry a notable edge figure of 7.35% against their fair probability of 26%, which is worth noting even though the raw win chance remains modest. As always in the Championship, prices can shift before kick-off, so checking odds close to the 11:30 UTC start is sensible.
Verdict: West Bromwich Albion are the market's clear pick and the model's recommended bet at 2.14, backed by a 48% implied confidence and a 3.11% edge. This is a moderate-value selection rather than a strong lock, so bettors should size stakes sensibly and treat the outcome as genuinely uncertain.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip was West Bromwich Albion to win at odds of 2.14.
West Bromwich Albion are the clear favourites, priced at 2.14 with Betfair, which implies close to a 47% win probability, notably shorter than the draw or a Queens Park Rangers win.
The draw is priced at 3.8 with LeoVegas (SE), implying an approximate 26% probability, sitting between the two teams' win chances.
The data shows Queens Park Rangers at 4.1 carry a fair probability of 26% but a value edge of 7.35%, the highest edge figure in this match, though their outright win probability remains lower than West Brom's.
The tip lost — final score 1-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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