Championship · Sat · 11:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
West Brom are the market's most fancied side at 2.31, implying roughly 43% winning probability
Birmingham City's 3.25 price implies about 31%, keeping them live outsiders rather than rank underdogs
The draw at 3.5 (implied near 29%) shows the bookmakers see this as a closely matched game across all three outcomes
The recommended Under 2.5 Goals bet at 1.98 carries a market-implied confidence of 49% but a negative value edge of -3.04%, suggesting no clear pricing advantage
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.4% | 7.49 |
| 1-0 | 12.9% | 7.76 |
| 0-1 | 11.5% | 8.70 |
| 0-0 | 11.1% | 9.03 |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | 12.87 |
| 2-0 | 7.5% | 13.35 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.16 and 1.04. These six scorelines cover 64% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from West Bromwich Albion's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · WBA | X | 2 · BC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Codere (IT) | 2.23 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.01 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.28 | 3.41 | 3.07 |
| Betsson | 2.28 | 3.40 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.28 | 3.50 | 2.94 |
| 1xBet | 2.27 | 3.40 | 2.99 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
West Bromwich Albion host Birmingham City in a Championship fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. West Brom's best price of 2.31 translates to an implied probability of roughly 43%, while Birmingham's top odds of 3.25 imply around 31%. The draw, priced at 3.5, sits close behind at about 29%, underlining how tightly the outcome market is bunched. With no side priced as a heavy favourite, this looks like a competitive Championship contest on paper. Away from the result market, our model highlights the goals market, recommending Under 2.5 Goals at 1.98. That price reflects a market-implied confidence of 49% for the under, though the model's own value edge comes out slightly negative, meaning the odds don't clearly favour backing it purely on value grounds.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 Goals pick at 1.98 is the model's lean, but with a -3.04% value edge it is not a standout value play, more a coin-flip proposition close to market fair value. Bettors should treat it as moderate risk and size stakes accordingly rather than expecting a clear edge.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City | 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.74 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.90, with a 51% confidence rating.
West Bromwich Albion are favoured by the market, with best odds of 2.31 implying a winning probability of about 43%, compared to Birmingham City's 3.25 (around 31%).
The best available draw price is 3.5, which implies a probability of roughly 29%, keeping it a realistic outcome given how close the match-result odds are.
The model recommends Under 2.5 Goals at 1.98 with 49% implied confidence, but the calculated value edge is slightly negative (-3.04%), meaning it is close to fair value rather than a clear value bet.
West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City takes place Sat · 11:30 in the Championship.
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