English ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 7 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.77
WonResult
1-0Final score
+0.77uProfit
58%Pre-match conf.
-2.21%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Unibet (NL)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Vitoria's 2.1 price implies roughly 48 percent win probability, the highest single outcome on the board.
02
Grêmio at 3.85 and the draw at 3.46 sit fairly close together, implying probabilities of about 26 percent and 29 percent respectively, pointing to a competitive match rather than a clear mismatch.
03
The recommended Under 2.5 goals selection at 1.77 carries a 58 percent implied confidence figure and a value edge of 3.34 percent versus market consensus.
04
No individual match-result selection cleared the site's value threshold, so the goals market is the primary data-backed angle here.
Team form
VIT Vitoria DWLLW
13 Sept 26 @ Mirassol 2-2
7 Sept 26 vs Grêmio 1-0
29 Aug 26 @ Mineiro 1-2
23 Aug 26 vs Bahia 0-2
16 Aug 26 vs Botafogo 1-0
GRÊ Grêmio DLLLW
20 Sept 26 vs Palmeiras 0-0
16 Sept 26 @ Botafogo 2-3
12 Sept 26 vs Vasco da Gama 1-2
7 Sept 26 @ Vitória 0-1
30 Aug 26 vs Chapecoense 3-1
Head-to-head: Vitoria v Grêmio
Full H2H history → W 7 Sept 26
Vitória 1-0 GrêmioBrasileirão
L 19 Mar 26
Grêmio 2-0 VitóriaBrasileirão
L 28 Sept 25
Grêmio 3-1 VitóriaBrasileirão
D 27 Apr 25
Vitória 1-1 GrêmioBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Vitoria's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Vitoria vs Grêmio: pre-match preview
Vitoria host Grêmio in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them an overwhelming pick. Best odds have Vitoria at 2.1, which implies a win probability of roughly 48 percent, while Grêmio's 3.85 price points to around 26 percent. The draw, priced at 3.46, sits close behind Grêmio's number at close to 29 percent, suggesting oddsmakers see a genuinely open contest rather than a one-sided affair. With no side priced as a heavy favourite, the scoreline itself becomes a notable market angle. That is reflected in our model's recommended play, Under 2.5 goals at 1.77, which carries an implied confidence of 58 percent and a modest value edge of 3.34 percent over the market consensus, making it the standout angle for this Brasileirão meeting between Vitoria and Grêmio.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals pick at 1.77 offers a modest statistical edge (3.34 percent) with 58 percent implied confidence, making it a reasonably grounded but far from certain option. Match-result odds show no clear standout, so bettors should treat this as a moderate-risk selection and size stakes with normal bankroll discipline.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-0, for a flat-stake return of +0.77 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Vitoria vs Grêmio?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.77.
Who is favourite in the Vitoria vs Grêmio match?+
Based on best available odds, Vitoria are favourites at 2.1, implying about a 48 percent win probability, ahead of Grêmio at 3.85 (around 26 percent) and the draw at 3.46 (around 29 percent).
What is the draw price for this Brasileirão fixture?+
The best available draw odds are 3.46, from 1xBet, which implies a probability of roughly 29 percent.
Is there a value bet for Vitoria vs Grêmio?+
No match-result selection cleared the site's value threshold. The recommended play is instead in the goals market: Under 2.5 goals at 1.77, showing a 3.34 percent edge and 58 percent implied confidence.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 1-0 (+0.77u at flat stakes).