Brasileirão · Wed · 23:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Vitoria are priced at 1.72, implying an approximate 58 percent win probability and marking them the clear market favourite.
Chapecoense's 5.25 price implies only about 19 percent, reflecting the market's low expectation of an away win.
The draw at 3.71 implies roughly 27 percent, a live but secondary outcome behind a home win.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.88 carries a model confidence of 51 percent against an implied 53 percent, giving a value edge of -4.04 percent, meaning it is not flagged as a clear value play by the model's own metric.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.1% | 8.24 |
| 1-1 | 11.6% | 8.63 |
| 2-0 | 10.1% | 9.93 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.38 |
| 0-0 | 7.3% | 13.70 |
| 0-1 | 7.0% | 14.33 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.66 and 0.96. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Vitoria's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VIT | X | 2 · CHA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.61 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
| Betsson | 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.40 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.56 | 3.84 | 5.75 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.54 | 3.90 | 5.80 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.60 | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Vitoria host Chapecoense in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best available odds price Vitoria at 1.72, which implies a win probability of roughly 58 percent, while Chapecoense sit out at 5.25 for an implied chance of about 19 percent. The draw is priced at 3.71, translating to roughly 27 percent. Taken together, these figures point to a fairly one-sided market view, with the visitors seen as clear outsiders. Away from the match-result market, our model's recommended angle for this game is Under 2.5 goals at 1.88, suggesting the two sides may produce a low-scoring contest. That price implies a break-even probability near 53 percent against a model confidence of 51 percent, so the recommendation carries a slightly negative value edge rather than a standout opportunity, and should be weighed accordingly.
Verdict: The market strongly favours Vitoria, but the site's recommended angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.88. With a model confidence of 51 percent against an implied 53 percent break-even mark, the edge is slightly negative, so this should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a confident value pick. Bankroll discipline is advised.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:30 | Botafogo v Vasco da Gama | 2.67 | 3.35 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88, with a 51% confidence rating.
Vitoria are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.72, which implies roughly a 58 percent chance of winning according to the odds given.
The draw is priced at 3.71, which implies an approximate 27 percent probability based on the available market data.
The listed value picks show none above the threshold for the match-result market. The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.88 actually carries a slightly negative edge of -4.04 percent, so it is not presented as a strong value opportunity.
Vitoria vs Chapecoense takes place Wed · 23:00 in the Brasileirão.
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