Brasileirão · Sun · 21:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Vitoria are the market favourite at 2.45 (about 41% implied), narrowly ahead of Botafogo at 3.04 (about 33%).
The draw is priced at 3.4, roughly 29% implied, reflecting how close the market sees this contest.
The Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.03 sits near a coin-flip in confidence terms, about 47%.
No selection cleared our value threshold, and the recommended Over 2.5 carries a negative edge of -4.04%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.6% | 7.94 |
| 0-1 | 10.2% | 9.77 |
| 1-0 | 9.3% | 10.70 |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | 11.79 |
| 2-1 | 7.7% | 12.92 |
| 0-0 | 7.6% | 13.16 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.23 and 1.35. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Vitoria's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 3.06 | 1xBet | 32.7% |
| Vitoria | 2.41 | 1xBet | 41.5% |
| Draw | 3.40 | Coolbet | 29.4% |
This Brasileirão clash between Vitoria and Botafogo is a tight one on paper, with the home side edging the market's favour. Vitoria are priced at 2.45 with Coolbet, translating to an implied probability of roughly 41%, while Botafogo sit as slight underdogs at 3.04 with 1xBet, around 33% in probability terms. The draw is available at 3.4 with Coolbet, worth about 29% implied. Those numbers describe a genuinely competitive fixture rather than a clear-cut mismatch, with the margins between all three outcomes fairly narrow. Our model does not lean on the match result here; instead it flags Over 2.5 goals at 2.03 with 1xBet, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 47%. Notably, that pick shows a negative value edge of -4.04%, meaning it currently prices below fair value on our numbers, so it is a preference rather than a strong recommendation.
Verdict: The lean is Over 2.5 goals at 2.03, near an even-money proposition with about 47% implied confidence. Be aware it shows a negative value edge of -4.04%, so it is a modest preference rather than a strong play. Stake responsibly and only within a comfortable bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 19:00 | Grêmio v Sao Paulo | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| 8 Aug 21:30 | Remo v Atletico Mineiro | 3.08 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| 8 Aug 23:30 | Coritiba v Chapecoense | 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| 9 Aug 00:00 | Botafogo v Fluminense | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.93 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Cruzeiro v Mirassol | 1.72 | 3.85 | 5.32 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Palmeiras v Internacional | 1.64 | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Bahia v Vasco da Gama | 1.94 | 3.76 | 4.30 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Santos v Atletico Paranaense | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.61 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 | Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 | Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitória | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.81, with a 53% confidence rating.
Vitoria are the narrow favourite at 2.45 with Coolbet, implying about 41% probability, ahead of Botafogo at 3.04 (around 33%).
The draw is priced at 3.4 with Coolbet, which implies roughly a 29% chance and underlines how close the market rates this fixture.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.03 actually shows a negative edge of -4.04%, so it is a preference rather than a value bet.
Vitoria vs Botafogo takes place Sun · 21:30 in the Brasileirão.
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