English ⚽ Bundesliga 🕒 19 Sept 2026
Our tip
Borussia Dortmund to win
Odds
3.07
WonResult
0-1Final score
+2.07uProfit
35%Pre-match conf.
+4.07%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Stuttgart carry the shortest price at 2.36, implying the highest single-outcome probability of the three markets at just over 42%.
02
Dortmund's 3.07 odds imply roughly 33% win probability, yet the model rates their chances slightly higher at 35%, producing an 8.25% edge.
03
The draw at 4.20 implies about 24% probability, while the model's fair value of 25% gives a modest 4.18% edge on that outcome.
04
Combined implied probabilities across all three odds sum to just under 100%, reflecting a tight, low-margin market on this fixture.
Team form
VS VfB Stuttgart LLWLD
19 Sept 26 vs Dortmund 0-1
12 Sept 26 @ Hoffenheim 1-2
4 Sept 26 vs 1. FC Köln 4-1
28 Aug 26 @ Bayern 1-5
16 May 26 @ Frankfurt 2-2
BD Borussia Dortmund WWWWW
19 Sept 26 @ Stuttgart 1-0
12 Sept 26 vs SC Paderborn 3-0
5 Sept 26 @ Hoffenheim 3-2
29 Aug 26 vs HSV 2-0
16 May 26 @ Bremen 2-0
Head-to-head: VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund
Full H2H history → L 19 Sept 26
Stuttgart 0-1 DortmundBundesliga
L 4 Apr 26
Stuttgart 0-2 DortmundBundesliga
D 22 Nov 25
Dortmund 3-3 StuttgartBundesliga
W/D/L shown from VfB Stuttgart's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: pre-match preview
Bundesliga action sees VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Dortmund, with the betting market leaning toward the home side. Stuttgart's best price of 2.36 implies a win probability of roughly 42%, making them the nominal favourites over Dortmund, whose 3.07 odds translate to about 33%. The draw sits further back at 4.20, implying near 24%. Despite Stuttgart's shorter price, our model flags Dortmund to win as the recommended angle, assigning the visitors a 35% chance of victory versus the market's 32.57% implied figure, a value edge of 8.25%. A secondary value signal appears on the draw, priced at 4.20 against a modelled fair probability of 25%, a smaller edge of 4.18%. Neither figure represents a certainty, and Bundesliga meetings between these two sides can be tightly contested on paper, at least according to how the odds are structured here.
Verdict: The recommended play is Dortmund to win at 3.07, backed by an 8.25% edge over the implied market price. It is not a short-priced selection, so variance is meaningful; Stuttgart remain market favourites and the draw also shows value, so this pick suits measured, risk-aware staking rather than heavy exposure.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 0-1, for a flat-stake return of +2.07 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
W 19 Sept 26
Under 3.5 goalsfinal score 0-1
1.97 +0.97u Upcoming Bundesliga fixtures
All Bundesliga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Bundesliga standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?+
Our tip was Borussia Dortmund to win at odds of 3.07.
Who is favourite in the Stuttgart vs Dortmund odds?+
VfB Stuttgart are priced shortest at 2.36, implying around 42% win probability, making them the market's favourite over Dortmund at 3.07 (about 33%).
What is the draw priced at for this match?+
The best available draw price is 4.20, which implies a probability of roughly 24%. The model's fair value estimate is close at 25%, giving a small edge of 4.18%.
Is there value in backing Dortmund to win?+
According to the model, yes: Dortmund's 3.07 price implies a 33% chance, but the model rates their true probability at 35%, an edge of 8.25%. This is not a guarantee, just a market-based value signal.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 0-1 (+2.07u at flat stakes).