English ⚽ Serie A 🕒 23 Aug 2026
Our tip
Under 2.25 goals
Odds
1.88
WonResult
0-2Final score
+0.88uProfit
51%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Pinnacle
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Venezia are the market favourites at 2.42 (about 41% implied), but the margin over Lecce is slim.
02
Lecce at 3.31 and the draw at 3.33 are priced almost identically, each near 30% implied probability.
03
The tight gap across all three outcomes signals an open game rather than a clear favourite.
04
The recommended Over 2.25 goals at 1.93 carries a negative value edge of -4.26% and 50% confidence, so it is a marginal lean, not a standout value spot.
Team form
VEN Venezia LLLLL
19 Sept 26 vs Lazio 0-2
11 Sept 26 vs Fiorentina 2-4
6 Sept 26 @ Frosinone 2-3
28 Aug 26 @ Milan 0-2
23 Aug 26 vs Lecce 0-2
LEC Lecce WLLWW
13 Sept 26 vs Monza 3-2
7 Sept 26 @ Cagliari 0-1
31 Aug 26 vs Roma 0-4
23 Aug 26 @ Venezia FC 2-0
24 May 26 vs Genoa 1-0
Head-to-head: Venezia v Lecce
L 23 Aug 26
Venezia FC 0-2 LecceSerie A
W/D/L shown from Venezia's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Venezia vs Lecce: pre-match preview
This Serie A meeting between Venezia and Lecce sees the home side installed as narrow favourites by the market. Venezia are priced at 2.42, translating to an implied probability of roughly 41%, while Lecce sit at 3.31, or about 30% in probability terms. The draw is close behind at 3.33, worth around 30%. That spread points to a genuinely open contest rather than a mismatch, with Venezia holding only a modest edge on paper. Our model does not flag a value pick on the match result; instead it looks to the goals market, recommending Over 2.25 goals at 1.93 with Pinnacle. That reflects a coin-flip 50% market-implied confidence. Worth noting, the calculated value edge on that selection is negative at -4.26%, so it is more a lean than a strong quantitative signal. Treat this fixture as a tight one where the total goals angle is the model's preferred, if cautious, route in.
Verdict: The model leans to Over 2.25 goals at 1.93, a near coin-flip call at 50% confidence. With a negative value edge of -4.26%, this is a low-conviction selection rather than a strong signal. Stake modestly and keep bankroll discipline, since the numbers offer no clear edge here.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 0-2, for a flat-stake return of +0.88 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
V 22 Aug 26
Over 2.5 goalsVoid — fixture rescheduled and re-listed
2.16 0.00u Upcoming Serie A fixtures
All Serie A tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | AC Milan v Lecce | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| 10 Oct 13:00 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.45 |
| 10 Oct 16:00 | Inter Milan v Parma | 1.14 | 10.60 | 22.00 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Napoli v Frosinone | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.50 |
| 11 Oct 10:30 | Como v AS Roma | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.88 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lecce v Bologna | 4.21 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lazio v Monza | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.40 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Sassuolo v AC Milan | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Serie A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Venezia vs Lecce?+
Our tip was Under 2.25 goals at odds of 1.88.
Who is the favourite for Venezia vs Lecce?+
Venezia are the favourites at 2.42, an implied probability of around 41%. Lecce are the outsiders at 3.31, roughly 30%.
What are the draw odds for this match?+
The draw is priced at 3.33 with 1xBet, an implied probability of about 30%, almost identical to Lecce's price.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
No selection cleared our value threshold. The model's preferred angle, Over 2.25 goals at 1.93, actually shows a negative value edge of -4.26%, so it is a cautious lean rather than a value bet.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 0-2 (+0.88u at flat stakes).