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Français ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 Sun · 19:00
Our tip
Over 2.5 goals
Odds
2.03
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 52%
AI Value edge 5.19% · best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Vasco da Gama are the market favourites at 2.0, implying about a 50% chance of victory, while Santos at 3.91 sit near 26%.
02
The draw is priced at 3.5, worth roughly a 29% implied probability, reflecting a match the market sees leaning home but not one-sided.
03
Our recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.03 carries a 52% implied confidence and a 5.21% value edge, the only pick clearing our threshold.
04
Neither the home nor away match-result price showed value above threshold, which is why attention shifts to the total-goals market.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 60%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.9% | 9.17 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.85 |
| 1-0 | 8.1% | 12.41 |
| 1-2 | 7.4% | 13.57 |
| 2-0 | 6.8% | 14.66 |
| 0-1 | 6.5% | 15.50 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.69 and 1.35. These six scorelines cover 49% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
VDG Vasco da Gama DLLLL
25 Jul 26 vs Mirassol 1-1
16 Jul 26 @ Vitória 0-1
31 May 26 vs Mineiro 0-1
24 May 26 vs Bragantino 0-3
16 May 26 @ Internacional 1-4
SAN Santos DLWLL
25 Jul 26 vs Chapecoense 2-2
16 Jul 26 @ Botafogo 1-2
30 May 26 vs Vitória 3-1
23 May 26 @ Grêmio 2-3
17 May 26 vs Coritiba 0-3
Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama v Santos
Full H2H history → L 26 Feb 26
Santos 2-1 Vasco da GamaBrasileirão
W 17 Aug 25
Santos 0-6 Vasco da GamaBrasileirão
W 30 Mar 25
Vasco da Gama 2-1 SantosBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Vasco da Gama's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 4.00 | Coolbet | 25.0% |
| Vasco da Gama | 2.00 | 1xBet | 50.0% |
| Draw | 3.50 | Coolbet | 28.6% |
Vasco da Gama vs Santos: match preview
This Brasileirão clash sees Vasco da Gama host Santos, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Vasco are priced at 2.0 with Coolbet, which translates to a roughly 50% implied chance of victory, marking them as clear home favourites. Santos, by contrast, sit out at 3.91 with 1xBet, implying only about a 26% probability of winning on the road. The draw is available at 3.5, worth around a 29% implied chance. Rather than backing the match result, our model steers toward the goals market. The recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 2.03 with 1xBet, carrying a market-implied confidence of 52% and a modest value edge of 5.21%. That makes the total-goals angle the standout on the card, with the head-to-head prices offering no value above our threshold for either side.
Verdict: The value here lies with Over 2.5 goals at 2.03, backed by a 52% implied confidence and a 5.21% edge. It is a moderate-risk pick, roughly a coin flip by the odds, so treat it accordingly and stake within a sensible bankroll.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 19:00 | Grêmio v Sao Paulo | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| 8 Aug 21:30 | Remo v Atletico Mineiro | 3.08 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| 8 Aug 23:30 | Coritiba v Chapecoense | 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| 9 Aug 00:00 | Botafogo v Fluminense | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.93 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Cruzeiro v Mirassol | 1.72 | 3.85 | 5.32 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Palmeiras v Internacional | 1.64 | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Bahia v Vasco da Gama | 1.94 | 3.76 | 4.30 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Santos v Atletico Paranaense | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.61 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 | Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 | Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitória | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Santos?+
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.03, with a 52% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Vasco da Gama vs Santos?+
Vasco da Gama are the favourites at 2.0, implying about a 50% chance of winning. Santos are the outsiders at 3.91, around 26%.
What are the draw odds for this match?+
The draw is priced at 3.5 with Coolbet, which implies roughly a 29% probability of the game ending level.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
Our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 2.03 as the value pick, with a 5.21% edge and 52% implied confidence. The match-result prices did not clear our value threshold.
When does the match kick off?+
Vasco da Gama vs Santos takes place Sun · 19:00 in the Brasileirão.