English ⚽ Bundesliga 🕒 12 Sept 2026
Our tip
VfB Stuttgart to win
Odds
2.88
LostResult
2-1Final score
-1.00uProfit
36%Pre-match conf.
-3.36%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Unibet (SE)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Hoffenheim is the market favourite at 2.46, implying a win probability of approximately 41%
02
Stuttgart is priced at 2.88, implying roughly 35% probability, with the model rating this a value opportunity
03
The draw at 4.0 implies around 25% probability, keeping the outcome spread relatively balanced across all three results
04
The recommended Stuttgart bet carries a modest 4.64% edge and a confidence level of only 36%, reflecting a close contest rather than a one-sided fixture
Team form
TH TSG Hoffenheim WLLLW
12 Sept 26 vs Stuttgart 2-1
5 Sept 26 vs Dortmund 2-3
29 Aug 26 @ 1. FC Köln 2-3
16 May 26 @ M'gladbach 0-4
9 May 26 vs Bremen 1-0
VS VfB Stuttgart LLWLD
19 Sept 26 vs Dortmund 0-1
12 Sept 26 @ Hoffenheim 1-2
4 Sept 26 vs 1. FC Köln 4-1
28 Aug 26 @ Bayern 1-5
16 May 26 @ Frankfurt 2-2
Head-to-head: TSG Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart
Full H2H history → W 12 Sept 26
Hoffenheim 2-1 StuttgartBundesliga
D 2 May 26
Hoffenheim 3-3 StuttgartBundesliga
D 20 Dec 25
Stuttgart 0-0 HoffenheimBundesliga
W/D/L shown from TSG Hoffenheim's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart: pre-match preview
Bundesliga action brings together TSG Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart, with the betting market painting a fairly tight picture despite Hoffenheim sitting as the nominal favourite. Best available odds have Hoffenheim at 2.46, Stuttgart at 2.88, and the draw priced at 4.0. Converting those figures gives Hoffenheim an implied win probability of roughly 41%, Stuttgart around 35%, and the draw about 25%. That gap between favourite and underdog is modest, suggesting the market does not see a clear gulf in class between these two sides. Our model has flagged Stuttgart's price as offering value, recommending a back at 2.88 with a market-implied confidence of 36% and a calculated edge of 4.64% over the raw market price. It is not a dominant statistical case, but it points to Stuttgart being slightly underpriced relative to Hoffenheim given the overall shape of the odds.
Verdict: Stuttgart to win at 2.88 is the recommended angle, based on a modest 4.64% value edge over market pricing. With implied confidence at just 36%, this remains a moderate-risk selection in a fixture the odds suggest is closely contested, not a high-certainty pick.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
L 12 Sept 26
Over 3.5 goalsfinal score 2-1
2.19 -1.00u Upcoming Bundesliga fixtures
All Bundesliga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Bundesliga standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?+
Our tip was VfB Stuttgart to win at odds of 2.88.
Who is favourite in the Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart match?+
Hoffenheim is the market favourite, priced at 2.46, which implies a win probability of roughly 41%, compared to Stuttgart's implied 35% at 2.88.
What are the odds for a draw in this Bundesliga fixture?+
The best available draw price is 4.0, which implies an approximate 25% probability of the match ending level.
Is there value in betting on this fixture?+
The model identifies Stuttgart's win price of 2.88 as offering value, citing a 4.64% edge over the market, though confidence in this pick is only rated at 36%, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 2-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).