MLS · Sat · 23:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Toronto FC are narrow favourites at 2.46 (about 41% implied), just ahead of New England Revolution at 2.85 (about 35%).
The draw is priced at 3.75, roughly 27% implied, reflecting how tight the market rates this matchup.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.75 carries market-implied confidence around 55%.
The value edge on that Over pick is negative at -3.12%, meaning no selection cleared our value threshold.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution | 3.05 | LeoVegas (SE) | 32.8% |
| Toronto FC | 2.35 | 1xBet | 42.6% |
| Draw | 3.96 | 1xBet | 25.3% |
This MLS meeting between Toronto FC and New England Revolution is priced as a genuinely close contest, with the bookmakers leaning only slightly toward the hosts. Toronto FC are the marginal favourites at 2.46 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied win probability of roughly 41%. New England Revolution sit at 2.85, implying around 35%, while the draw is offered at 3.75 (Coolbet), or about 27% in probability terms. Those figures describe a match the market sees as difficult to call, with no dominant side. Rather than picking a winner, our model looks to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 (1xBet) with market-implied confidence near 55%. It is worth noting the value edge on that selection reads negative at -3.12%, so this is a lean rather than a standout price. Treat it as one angle on an evenly matched fixture and stake within your usual limits.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 1.75, expecting an open game, but the -3.12% edge signals no real price advantage. With both teams closely matched in the odds, this is a moderate-risk lean rather than a strong value play, so stake carefully.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 20:30 | New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo | 2.55 | 3.86 | 2.82 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati | 2.33 | 4.56 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | CF Montreal v D.C. United | 2.25 | 3.97 | 3.20 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC | 2.17 | 4.04 | 3.35 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls | 1.83 | 4.55 | 3.95 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF | 2.15 | 4.28 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy | 1.74 | 4.44 | 4.75 |
| 16 Aug 01:30 | Colorado Rapids v Sporting Kansas City | 1.41 | 5.71 | 7.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.75, with a 55% confidence rating.
Toronto FC are the slight favourites at 2.46, implying roughly a 41% win probability, just ahead of New England Revolution at 2.85 (about 35%).
The draw is priced at 3.75 with Coolbet, which implies around a 27% chance of the match ending level.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.75 actually shows a negative edge of -3.12%, so it is a lean rather than a value play.
Toronto FC vs New England Revolution takes place Sat · 23:30 in the MLS.
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