Serie A · Mon · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Torino are priced as favourites at 2.38, implying roughly 42% win probability compared with Udinese's 31% at 3.27.
The draw at 3.48 implies about 29%, keeping all three outcomes within a fairly narrow probability band.
The model's recommended bet is Udinese to win at 3.27, citing a 17.12% value edge over market consensus.
No additional value picks were identified elsewhere in the match-result market beyond the Udinese selection.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.55 |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | 11.19 |
| 0-1 | 8.9% | 11.26 |
| 2-1 | 7.7% | 12.97 |
| 1-0 | 7.7% | 13.05 |
| 0-2 | 6.8% | 14.75 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.32 and 1.53. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Torino's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · TOR | X | 2 · UDI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.48 | 3.27 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.38 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.38 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.30 | 3.38 | 3.18 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.29 | 3.35 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.30 | 3.36 | 3.16 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Torino host Udinese in a Serie A fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Best available prices put Torino at 2.38, which implies roughly a 42% chance of victory, while Udinese sit out at 3.27, translating to an implied probability near 31%. The draw is priced at 3.48, around 29% implied, showing the market sees this as a fairly open contest across all three outcomes. Within this spread, our model flags Udinese's price as carrying value, recommending the away win at 3.27 with a stated edge of 17.12% against market consensus. That does not mean Udinese are expected to win outright, but rather that the model judges the current odds to undervalue their chances relative to its own calculations. As always in Serie A, three-way markets like this carry meaningful uncertainty, and the draw price itself underlines how tightly matched the bookmakers consider this fixture to be.
Verdict: The recommended angle is Udinese to win at 3.27, supported by a 17.12% modelled edge despite the market only giving them roughly a 36% implied chance. It's a value-based underdog play rather than a confident prediction, so stake sizing and bankroll discipline are advisable given the inherent risk.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | AC Milan v Lecce | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| 10 Oct 13:00 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.45 |
| 10 Oct 16:00 | Inter Milan v Parma | 1.14 | 10.60 | 22.00 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Napoli v Frosinone | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.50 |
| 11 Oct 10:30 | Como v AS Roma | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.88 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lecce v Bologna | 4.21 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lazio v Monza | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.40 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Sassuolo v AC Milan | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.85, with a 53% confidence rating.
Torino are the market favourites at 2.38, implying about a 42% chance of winning, compared with Udinese's 31% implied probability at 3.27.
The draw is available at 3.48, which implies roughly a 29% probability, indicating a fairly tightly contested fixture according to the odds.
The model highlights Udinese to win at 3.27 as the value selection, citing a 17.12% edge over market consensus, though this remains an underdog bet with real risk attached.
Torino vs Udinese takes place Mon · 18:45 in the Serie A.
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