Liga MX · Mon · 03:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Cruz Azul are the favourites at 2.25 (about 44% implied), but the margin over Tijuana is modest rather than commanding.
Tijuana at 3.1 sit near 32% implied, keeping the home side firmly in the frame as underdogs.
The draw is priced at 3.5, roughly 29% implied, reflecting a genuine chance of a tight result.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 shows a negative value edge of -5.54%, so it is a lean rather than a priced overlay.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul | 2.25 | Coolbet | 44.4% |
| Tijuana | 3.10 | Coolbet | 32.3% |
| Draw | 3.50 | Coolbet | 28.6% |
This Liga MX meeting sees Tijuana host Cruz Azul, and the market leans clearly toward the visitors. Cruz Azul are priced at 2.25 with Coolbet, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 44%, marking them as favourites without making them a runaway pick. Tijuana at 3.1 sit around 32% in implied terms, while the draw at 3.5 is priced near 29%, so a stalemate is far from dismissed. Rather than backing a side, our model looks to the goals market: the recommended angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.93, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 49%. It is worth noting the value edge here is negative at -5.54%, meaning the price offers no clear overlay against the market. In a fixture where the favourite is only moderately backed and the draw is well supported, a low-scoring outcome is a reasonable narrative to consider.
Verdict: The model favours Under 2.5 goals at 1.93, aligning with a fixture where the favourite is only moderately backed and the draw is well supported. Be aware the value edge is negative, so this is a low-confidence lean, not a standout price. Stake responsibly and only within your means.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 23:00 | Atlante FC v Toluca | 5.90 | 4.20 | 1.58 |
| 16 Aug 01:00 | Monterrey v FC Juárez | 1.56 | 4.40 | 5.75 |
| 16 Aug 03:00 | Atlas v Tigres | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| 16 Aug 18:00 | Pumas v Querétaro | 1.64 | 4.20 | 5.05 |
| 16 Aug 23:00 | América v Atlético San Luis | 1.60 | 4.30 | 5.40 |
| 17 Aug 01:00 | Santos Laguna v Guadalajara | 5.25 | 4.20 | 1.62 |
| 18 Aug 01:00 | Necaxa v León | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| 18 Aug 03:00 | Pachuca v Puebla | 1.40 | 4.75 | 8.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 49% confidence rating.
Cruz Azul are the favourites at 2.25 with Coolbet, an implied probability of around 44%. Tijuana are the underdogs at 3.1, roughly 32% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.5 with Coolbet, which implies about a 29% chance. That is fairly strong support for a tight, evenly contested outcome.
No pick cleared our value threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 actually carries a negative edge of -5.54%, so it is a lean based on market confidence rather than a clear value bet.
Tijuana vs Cruz Azul takes place Mon · 03:00 in the Liga MX.
English 
Español 
Português 
Deutsch 
Français