Liga Profesional · Sun · 20:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
The three match-result prices are within six ticks of each other (2.81, 2.86, 2.87), reflecting a genuinely open contest with no strong favourite.
Implied probabilities cluster tightly around 34.8 to 35.6 percent for Belgrano, Talleres and the draw respectively.
The Over 1.5 goals recommendation carries a 54 percent implied confidence level but shows a negative value edge of -5.01 percent versus the model's fair-value assessment.
No value picks cleared the site's threshold against market consensus, underlining how efficiently this fixture is currently priced.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 15.7% | 6.36 |
| 0-1 | 15.0% | 6.68 |
| 1-0 | 14.1% | 7.08 |
| 1-1 | 13.4% | 7.44 |
| 0-2 | 7.1% | 14.04 |
| 1-2 | 6.4% | 15.65 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.90 and 0.95. These six scorelines cover 72% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · TAL | X | 2 · BDC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.84 | 2.90 | 2.81 |
| Betsson | 2.85 | 2.82 | 2.85 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.85 | 2.82 | 2.85 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.78 | 2.84 | 2.75 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.55 | 2.75 | 2.60 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.48 | 2.67 | 2.62 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Talleres host Belgrano de Cordoba in a Liga Profesional derby where the match-result market is about as tight as it gets. Belgrano is priced marginally shorter at 2.81 with 1xBet, Talleres sits at 2.86, and the draw is actually the closest-priced outcome at 2.87. Converting those numbers gives Belgrano roughly 35.6 percent implied probability, Talleres about 35 percent, and the draw close to 34.8 percent, meaning the bookmaker sees essentially a three-way coin flip with no side commanding a clear edge. Given that lack of separation in the outright market, our model steers away from picking a winner and instead flags the Over 1.5 goals line at 1.77 as the more workable angle, built around a 54 percent implied confidence that the sides will combine for at least two goals across the ninety minutes.
Verdict: With the outright market offering no discernible edge, Over 1.5 goals at 1.77 is the standout angle, though its -5.01 percent value edge means the price is not generous relative to the model's own estimate. It is a moderate-confidence lean rather than a high-conviction play, so stake sizing should reflect that.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:45 | San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.65 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Platense v Newells Old Boys | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 17:30 | Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Atlético Tucuman | 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.58 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 22 Sept 00:15 | Lanus v Estudiantes | 2.26 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.77, with a 54% confidence rating.
The market barely distinguishes between the two sides. Belgrano is priced fractionally shorter at 2.81 against Talleres at 2.86, but the gap is small enough that neither team is a clear favourite.
1xBet offers 2.87 on the draw, which is actually the joint-tightest of the three outcomes, implying close to 34.8 percent probability.
No outright value picks cleared the site's threshold. The recommended play is Over 1.5 goals at 1.77 with 54 percent implied confidence, though it carries a negative value edge of -5.01 percent, so it should be viewed as a moderate lean rather than a strong value bet.
Talleres vs Belgrano de Cordoba takes place Sun · 20:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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